1. Which of the following statements is (are) not correct in the context of the
ID: 326768 • Letter: 1
Question
1. Which of the following statements is (are) not correct in the context of the Delphi forecasting methodology? The Delphi Method involves:
a. Consulting directly with groups of qualified individuals and then compiling their opinions into a forecast.
b. Detailed online surveys of experts and the compiling of their individual answers to create a median result.
c. Forecasting future company performance as a function of past operating and financial data.
d. Research or planning groups within an organization when members of staff must both master the technique and use the study results.
unanswered
2. Single regression analysis is an example of which type of forecasting technique?
a. Sophisticated
b. Naïve
c. Causal
d. Time Series
For the following three questions, please use the table provided just above the quiz.
3. What is the 3 month moving average forecast for January of the following year in respect of this monthly Rooms sales performance?
a. 4,000
b. 4,050
c. 4,100
d. 4,150
4. If the actual performance of the hotel for the month of January of the following year achieved Rooms sales of 4,050, what would have been the more accurate forecasting technique; a 3 month or 12 month moving average?
a. 12 month
b. 3 month
unanswered
5. If the smoothing constant is 0.1 and assuming that the forecast for December performance was 4,080, what is the forecast for January using the exponential smoothing method?
a. 4,212
b. 4,092
c. 4,100
Montih Rooms Sold lanary A.0GO FekanusryAcn March April May June July August 3.8C0 4.200 4.100 A.0GO 3.9C0 A.0GO September 3.8u0 4.100 November 40C0 December 4.200 47.700 OctoberExplanation / Answer
The Delphi method was originally conceived in the 1950s by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey of the Rand Corporation. The name refers to the Oracle of Delphi, a priestess at a temple of Apollo in ancient Greece known for her prophecies. The Delphi method allows experts to work towards a mutual agreement by conducting a circulating series of questionnaires and releasing related feedback to further the discussion with each subsequent round. The experts' responses shift as rounds are completed based on the information brought forth by other experts participating in the analysis.
Delphi technique therefore essentially involves : GROUP INVOLVEMENT as well as COMPILING AND REVIEWING feedback of various experts.
Option # a, #b and #d all of them take care of above requirement.
“Forecasting future company performance as a function of past operating and financial data” is a straightforward forecasting method which does not involve key attribute of any of the Delphi method. Therefore , it is the correct answer .
ANSWER : C ) FORECASTING FUTURE COMPANY PERFORMANCE AS A FUNCTION OF PAST OPERATING AND FINANCIAL DATA
Time series analysis comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series forecasting is the use of a model to predict future values based on previously observed values. Time series regression is a statistical method for predicting a future response based on the response history (known as autoregressive dynamics) and the transfer of dynamics from relevant predictors. ... Time series regression is commonly used for modeling and forecasting of economic, financial, and biological systems.
Therefore , correct answer would be “ d. time series “
ANSWER : d ) TIME SERIES
Forecast for January next year using 3 month moving average
= ( Actual October + Actual November + actual December ) / 3
= ( 4100 + 4000 + 4200 ) /3
= 4100
3 MONTH MOVINGAVERAGE FORECAST FOR JANUARY = 4100
Forecast for January next year using 12 months moving average
= Sum of actuals for 12 months/ 12
= 47700/12
= 3975
If actual for January is 4050 ,
Absolute deviation of forecast basis 3 month moving average = 4100 – 4050 = 50
Absolute deviation of forecast basis 12 month moving average = 4050 – 3975 = 75
Since absolute deviation is is less for forecast basis 3 month moving average , 3 month moving average is more accurate forecasting technique
ANSWER : a ) 3 MONTHS
Forecast for January
= Smoothing constant x December performance + ( 1 – smoothing constant ) x forecast for December
= 0.1 x 4200 + 0.9 x 4080
= 420 + 3672
= 4092
ANSWER : b ) 4092
ANSWER : C ) FORECASTING FUTURE COMPANY PERFORMANCE AS A FUNCTION OF PAST OPERATING AND FINANCIAL DATA
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