The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are: (1) 45 (2) 52 (3) 48 (4)

Question

The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are: (1) 45 (2) 52 (3) 48 (4) 59 (5) 55 (6) 57 (7) 64 (8) 58 (9) 68 (10) 66 (11) 69 (12) 75 Using a 5 period simple moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be: Using the 4 period weighted moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be: With exponential smoothing, the forecast for period 13 will be: With linear regression, the forecast for period 13 will be: With quadratic regression, the forecast for period 13 will be: Considering only the forecasts for period 6-12, what is the lowest MAD value for any of the methods?

Explanation / Answer

Answer:

Formula:

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 period x forecast-5 period SIMPLE moving average forecast-4 period weighted moving average forecast-exponential smoothing with alpha=0.6 Forecast- regression 1 45 45.00 46.78 2 52 45.00 49.13 3 48 49.20 51.47 4 59 48.48 53.81 5 55 52.90 54.79 56.16 6 57 51.80 54.50 54.92 58.50 7 64 54.20 55.90 56.17 60.84 8 58 56.60 59.60 60.87 63.18 9 68 58.60 59.30 59.15 65.53 10 66 60.40 63.10 64.46 67.87 11 69 62.60 64.80 65.38 70.21 12 75 65.00 66.80 67.55 72.56 13 67.2 70.7 72.0 74.899 slope intercept 2.342657343 44.43939

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