Question 1 contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). In

Question

Question 1 contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). In Excel, create forecasts for periods 6-13 using each of the following methods: 5 period simple moving average; 4 period weighted moving average (0.63, 0.26, 0.08, 0.03); exponential smoothing (alpha = 0.23 and the forecast for period 5 = 53); linear regression with the equation based on all 12 periods; and quadratic regression with the equation based on all 12 periods. Round all numerical answers to two decimal places.

1) The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are: (1) 45 (2) 52 (3) 48 (4) 59 (5) 55 (6) 54 (7) 64 (8) 59 (9) 72 (10) 66 (11) 64 (12) 78 Using a 5 period simple moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

2) Using the 4 period weighted moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

3) With exponential smoothing, the forecast for period 13 will be:

4) With linear regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

5) With quadratic regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

6) Considering only the forecasts for period 6-12, what is the lowest MAD value for any of the methods?

Explanation / Answer

Solution:

2) 0.63*74+0.26*66+0.08*66+0.03*73 = 71.25

3) by exponential

65.51104

4) regression

2.3042 44.6061

>> 2.3042*13+44.6061

ans =

74.5607

5)quadratic

ans =

-0.0192 2.5542 44.0227

>> -0.0192*169+2.5542*13+44.0227

ans =

73.9825

6) MAD formula

you have to calculate for each one method

F_k is forecast , A_k is actual value

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