Big Tree Diagram time.......... You do business with Contractor # 1 65% of the t
ID: 3241146 • Letter: B
Question
Big Tree Diagram time.......... You do business with Contractor # 1 65% of the time. You do business with Contractor # 2 35% of the time. Contractor # 1 sends bad shipments 5% of the time. Contractor # 2 sends bad shipments 10% of the time. Find the following probabilities.......... Probability that Contractor # 1 sends a good shipment. Probability that Contractor # 1 sends a bad shipment. Probability that Contractor # 2 sends a good shipment. Probability that Contractor # 2 sends a bad shipment. Probability that a shipment is good and it came from Contractor # 1. Probability that a shipment is bad and it came from Contractor # 1. Probability that a shipment is good and it came from Contractor # 2. Probability that a shipment is bad and it came from Contractor # 2. Probability that any shipment is good. Probability that any shipment is bad. You are looking at a good shipment - Probability it came from Contractor #1? You are looking at a good shipment - ProExplanation / Answer
Answer to each part with calc:
1. P( C1 sends good shipment) = 1-P(bad ) = 1-.05 = .95
2. P( C1 sends bad shipment) = P(bad) = .05
3. P( C2 sends good shipment) = 1-P(bad ) = 1-.10 = .90
4. P( C2 sends bad shipment) = P(bad) = .10
5. P( shipment is good, and it came from C1) = (.65*.95) .62
6. P( shipment is bad,and it came from C1) = (.65*.05)=.0325
7. P( shipment is good,and it came from C2) = (.35*.90)= .315
8. P( shipment is bad,and it came from C2) = (.35*.10) = .035
9. P( any shipment is good) = .65*.95 + .35*.90 = .9325
10.P( any shipment is bad) = .65*.05 + .35*.10= .067
11. P( shipment is good, and it came from C1) = (.65*.95)/(.65*.95 + .35*.90) = .66
12. P( shipment is good,and it came from C2) = (.35*.90)/(.35*.90+.65*.95) = .34
13. P( shipment is bad,and it came from C1) = (.65*.05)/(.65*.05 + .35*.10) = .48
14. P( shipment is bad,and it came from C2) = (.35*.10)/(.35*.10+.65*.05)=.52
Related Questions
Navigate
Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.