Two of Sally Clark\'s babies unexplainably died. Both deaths were attributed to

Question

Two of Sally Clark's babies unexplainably died. Both deaths were attributed to SIDS, Sudden Infant Death Syndrome, which means the causes of death are unknown. Sally was charged with two counts of murder. a. At her trial Professor Sir Roy Meadows stated that the odds of a SIDS death is 1 in 8543, and the odds of two SIDS deaths is 1 in 8543^2, or 1 in 72, 982, 849. What mistake did the professor make? Explain in context. b. The prosecutor used the professor's odds to convict Sally. What mistake did the prosecutor make? Explain in context.

Explanation / Answer

Part-a

Odds of a SIDS death = 1 in 8543

So, number of deaths by SIDS=1

Number of deaths not by SIDS=8543

Hence total number of deaths =1+8543=8544

So if 2 deaths occur by SIDS, then odds of two SIDS deaths are = 2 in 8542 or 1 in 4271

So the odds calculated are wrongs.

Part-b

The prosecutor based his decision on wrong odds and so his decision has nothing to do with Meadows odds. Actually prosecutor made a correct decision as odds of 2 SIDS deaths increases from 1 SIDS deaths and so Sally has actually done some crime.

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