Wisdom of Crowds The class participated in an estimation exercise on Wednesday A
ID: 3221375 • Letter: W
Question
Wisdom of Crowds
The class participated in an estimation exercise on Wednesday April 5 that involved guessing how many M&Ms were in a jar. The official count of M&Ms in the jar was 506. The class was asked to provide three estimates for the amount of M&Ms in the jar:
Estimate 1: How many M&Ms are in the jar when seen from a distance?
Estimate 2: How many M&Ms are in the jar when you have an opportunity to hold the jar in your hand?
Estimate 3: How many M&Ms are in the jar when you have an opportunity to hear others’ estimates?
a. Using the data provided below generate three histograms, one for each of the three estimates, and report the mean and standard deviation for each estimate.
Mean
Standard Deviation
Estimate 1 (from a distance)
Estimate 2 (up close)
Estimate 3 (with group’s input)
b. Which group estimate was the most accurate? Why do you think it was the most accurate?
c. How does additional information (holding the jar up close, hearing what others think) affect the range, mean, and standard deviation of estimates?
Name
Estimate 1
Estimate 2
Estimate 3
Jeffrey Bragg
250
475
473
Alex
600
480
480
Austin McCormick
700
600
480
Amber Morgan
600
500
600
Kelly
250
200
450
Jacob Wait
237
445
389
Rose
542
629
542
Karen
350
480
481
Adrianna
660
525
547
Tina Nguyen
341
671
600
Bailey Calciolari
316
416
516
Trevor
300
500
490
Beatriz Sau
350
320
400
Kyle Bodnicki
172
714
714
Alberto Becerin
98
360
420
Marco Tipiblo Cervubi
309
350
375
Mila
432
432
432
Kamal
450
225
840
Khaled
500
235
570
Amir Pasha Hessabi
500
400
450
Boyang Lu
150
300
350
Anas Balamesh
600
4500
2500
Kyle McCarley
250
320
380
Baldemar Audeves
290
306
340
Ehsan Esmaili
320
480
480
Travis Jefferies
150
250
250
Miguel Vasquez
350
1125
930
Ysabella Ronjo
500
1000
800
Mean
Standard Deviation
Estimate 1 (from a distance)
Estimate 2 (up close)
Estimate 3 (with group’s input)
Explanation / Answer
b) The estimate 3 gives the most accurate among all estimates because the mean is close to actual mean 506 and has least standarad deviation.
c) by additional information we can estimate the more accurately the range, mean and standard deviation
Mean Standard deviation Estimate 1 377.3929 161.9141 Estimate 2 615.6429 776.3903 Estimate 3 581.3929 399.1639Related Questions
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