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Malaria is a debilitating and potentially deadly parasitic infection. It can be

ID: 3220720 • Letter: M

Question

Malaria is a debilitating and potentially deadly parasitic infection. It can be cured and is mostly preventable with community health precautions but many developing countries lack the necessary resources. The West African Country of Guinea has a high rate of malaria, with 70% of its population infected.

A physician from "Doctors without Borders" sees 4 patients in a given hour.

Assume the patient visits are independent.

Let X be the count of patients who are infected with malaria among the 4 patients seen in any random one hour.

Evaluate the probability distribution of X: x

Pr(X=x)

0

1

2

3

4

f) Draw a probability histogram for the distribution of X (remember that these are discrete probabilities).

g) Find the probability that the doctor will see “at most” one patient with malaria in any hour (use correct notation for Probability involved)

h) Find the probability that there are 2 or more cases of malaria in any hour (use correct notation for Probability involved).

Evaluate the probability distribution of X: x

Pr(X=x)

0

1

2

3

4

Explanation / Answer

The distribution is binomial with n=4 and p=.7

Probability Distribution:

Pr[X<=1]=.0837 ............................using excel function=BINOMDIST(1,4,0.7,1)

P(X>=2)=1-P(X<=1)=1-0.0837=0.9163

X P(X) 0 0.0081 1 0.0756 2 0.2646 3 0.4116 4 0.2401
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