1. Global warming, Part I. Is there strong evidence of global warming? Let\'s co
ID: 3218451 • Letter: 1
Question
1. Global warming, Part I. Is there strong evidence of global warming? Let's consider a small scale example, comparing how temperatures have changed in the US from 1968 to 2008. The daily high temperature reading on January 1 was collected in 1968 and 2008 for 51 randomly selected locations in the continental US. Then the difference between the two readings (temperature in 2008 - temperature in 1968) was calculated for each of the 51 different locations. The average of these 51 values was 1.1 degrees with a standard deviation of 4.9 degrees. We are interested in determining whether these data provide strong evidence of temperature warming in the continental US.
(a) Is there a relationship between the observations collected in 1968 and 2008? Or are the observations in the two groups independent? Explain.
(b) Write hypotheses for this research in symbols and in words.
(c) Check the conditions required to complete this test.
(d) Calculate the test statistic and find the p-value.
(e) What do you conclude? Interpret your conclusion in context.
(f) What type of error might we have made? Explain in context what the error means.
(g) Based on the results of this hypothesis test, would you expect a confidence interval for the average difference between the temperature measurements from 1968 and 2008 to include 0? Explain your reasoning.
Explanation / Answer
ans=
(a) For each observation in one data set, there is exactly one speciallycorresponding observation in the other data set for the same geographic location. The data are paired.
(c) Independence: locations are random and the sample size is at least 40. We are not given the distribution to check the skew. In practice, we would ask to see the data to check this condition, but here we will move forward under the assumption that it is not strongly skewed.
(d) Z = 1.60 p-value = 0.0548.
(e) Since the p-value > (since not given use 0.05), fail to reject H0. The data do not provide strong evidence of temperature warming in the continental US. However it should be noted that the p-value is very close to 0.05.
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