1- Interpreting Weather – While this exercise was being created, Weather.com ind
ID: 3183319 • Letter: 1
Question
1- Interpreting Weather – While this exercise was being created, Weather.com indicated that there was 40% chance of rain for Southern Illinois region. Based on that report, which of the following is the most reasonable interpretation?
a-2/5 of the Southern Illinois region will get rain today.
b-In the instructor’s region, it will rain for 2/5 of the day.
c-In the Southern Illinois region, there is a 2/5 probability that it will rain at some point during the day.
3-Identifying Probability Values – Which of the following values are not probabilities?
5:2 3/7 7/3 -0.9 0.123 123/456 456/123 0 1
In problems 4 - 6, express the indicated degree of likelihood as a probability value between 0 and 1.
4-Traffic Light – When arriving at the traffic light closest to the instructor’s home, there is a 25% chance that the light will be red.
5-SAT Test – When guessing the answer to a multiple-choice question on an SAT test, the chance of guessing correctly is 1 in 5.
6-Statistics Test – It is impossible to pass a statistics test without studying.
In problems 7 – 8, refer to the sample data in table below. Assume that one of the subjects included in the table is randomly selected.
Table 1 Pre-Employment Drug Screening Results
Positive Test Results
Negative Test Results
Subject Uses Drugs
44 (True Positive)
6 (False Negative)
Subject is Not a Drug User
90 (False Positive)
860 ( True Negative)
7-Pre-Employment Drug Screening – Find the probability of selecting someone who got a result that is a false negative. Who would suffer from a false negative result? Why?
8-Pre-Employment Drug Screening – Find the probability of selecting someone who uses drugs. Is the result close to the probability of 0.134 for a positive test result?
9-Three Children – A couple are planning to have 3 children. What is the sample space for three children? (What are all the possible outcomes for three children?) Assume that boys and girls are equally likely, so that the sample events are equally likely.
a-Find the probability of having no girls.
b-Find the probability of having only one girl.
c-Find the probability of having two girls.
d-Find the probability of having three girls.
10-Finding Odds in Roulette – A roulette wheel has 38 slots. One slot is 0, another is 00, and the others are numbered 1 through 36, respectively. You place a bet that the outcome is an odd number.
a-What is your probability of winning?
b-What are the actual odds against winning?
c-When you bet that the outcome is an odd number, the payoff odds are 1:1. How much profit do you make if you bet $18 and win?
Table 1 Pre-Employment Drug Screening Results
Positive Test Results
Negative Test Results
Subject Uses Drugs
44 (True Positive)
6 (False Negative)
Subject is Not a Drug User
90 (False Positive)
860 ( True Negative)
Explanation / Answer
1 ) A. This is the definition of probability. THis option captures the essence of the definition properly.
3) Anything greater than 1 or less than 0 is not a probability. Hence,
5/2 7/3 -0.9 456/123 are not probabilites.
4) Probability of getting a red light near instructor's home = 25% = 25/100 = 0.25
5) Probability of getting a correct answer on SAT test while answering randomly = 1/5 = 0.2
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