322 Part II l Statistics: The Science of Data WRITING PROJECTS that you took jus

Question

322 Part II l Statistics: The Science of Data WRITING PROJECTS that you took just n Psychologists have shown that our intuitive the breath that was exhale understanding chance behavior poor Amos molecule of air rules Tversky (937-96) was a leader in the study of how we breath? What probability y make decisions in the face of In its obituary of this? What assumptions did the New York Times cited the following example: think they were reasonable? 3. Double or Nothing Gamh Tversky asked subjects to choose between tuo public that by betting on "red" in Ar health programs that affect 600 people. One had a winning, theref probability of efsaving all 600 and a probability of a chance of you have S that all 600 will die The other was guaranteed to sace bet. Suppose that stop wi either you reach (and aactly 400 of the 600 people Most people chose the placing individual $1 bets on second program. He then offered a different choice. One program had a probability oftofsaving all 600 and a likely to reach this goal than probability ofofksing all 600, while the other would First, try to give an answer b account the casino's advanta definitely lose eactly 200 lioes. Most people chose the first program You could also explore th Discuss this example. What is the difference between the the probability of going from going broke by making Si be two choices offered? Whatisthe mean number of people saved by the two opsgns in each What do the reactions of most subjects these choices show about how people make decisions? 2. There are about 1 x 10 air molecules in the Discuss how the strategy fo atmosphere and about 2x 10 molecules reaching a financial target c single breath taken at rest. of air in a maximizing the length of tim What is the probability that entertainment value). suggested Readings New York 197 and Chapters and 8 ptese

Explanation / Answer

In the first choice we are offered to save all the 600 population with probability =1/2

and to not save all the people probability it can be written as =1-1/2

=1/2

so as in second choice it is loosing 200 lifes it means it is saving 400 of lives

the first choice will be selected because of it is selecting more lives than the second choice

so mean of total no of save lives =1000/2 =500

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