The cartoon on the opening slide of this week’s lecture demonstrates the famous

Question

The cartoon on the opening slide of this week’s lecture demonstrates the famous ‘Monty Hall Problem’. This is a famous statistical puzzle. Go online and read up on the game and explanations on why the user should switch. Then describe why the user should decide to switch doors.

A key point to remember is that the game host is required to pick a door behind which is a goat. That is, the host will never pick the winning door.

This problem is very interesting for all kinds of reasons, one of which is the fact that intuitively, most people (including many mathematicians) would say that it really isn’t necessary to switch. And yet, your likelihood of winning most definitely does improve if you switch. Math and statistics can be very interesting when it comes to these sorts of things.

Explanation / Answer

The point is you are most probably wrong when you first chose a door, because there are many wrong options then.

Now, on the last stage, many wrong options are eliminated, but it doesn't change what's inside your door--it's still most probably wrong.

Hence, you should switch to increase the probability of winning.

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