roblem No Two project managers, Adam and Brenda, both believe that it is best to

Question

roblem No Two project managers, Adam and Brenda, both believe that it is best to express the duraton of activites th the triangular distribution. However, they disagree how to interpret the resulting total time of the project, expressed as the percentage of time one would expect the project to complete by a given time Adam thinks it should be with the triangular distribution (based on the sums of the 3 parameters), while Brenda prefers the normal. They enlist a colleague to arbitrate, who then uses the follow ing sample data o decide which of the two is the more risk averse. Show your ca Brenda is the more risk averse and give your reason lculatons and state whether Adam or 45 Answers Probability of completion l More Risk Averse Reason Activit Best Most likely Worst 10 7 3 9 512 13 15

Explanation / Answer

Adam

Triangluar distribution Forumla = (Worst+Best+Most Likely)/3.

Add duration of each scenario

Best = 31, Most Likely = 43, Worst = 54

Apply triangular distribution Forumla = (54 + 31 + 43)/3 = 42.6

Brenda

Normal Distribution = (W+B+4 X ML) / 6 = (54 + 31 + 4 X 43) / 6 = 42.8

Brenda is more risk averse as 42.8 > 42.6

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