3.10 Predicting when a Florida hurricane occurs. Since the early 1900\'s, the st

Question

3.10 Predicting when a Florida hurricane occurs. Since the early 1900's, the state of Florida has exceeded $450 mil- lion in damages due to destructive hurricanes. Conse- quently, the value of insured property against windstorm damage in Florida is the highest in the nation. Re- searchers at Florida State University conducted a compre- hensive analysis of damages caused by Florida hurricanes and published the results in Southeastern Geographer (Summer, 2009). Part of their analysis included estimat ing the likelihood that a hurricane develops from a tropi- cal storm based on the sequence number of the tropical storm within a season. The researchers discovered that of the 67 Florida hurricanes since 1900, 11 developed from the 5th tropical storm of the season (the sequence with the highest frequency. Also, only 5 hurricanes developed from a tropical storm with a sequence number of 12 or greater. a. Estimate the probability that a Florida hurricane devel- ops from the 5th tropical storm of the season. b. Estimate the probability that a Florida hurricane devel- ops before the 12th tropical storm of the season

Explanation / Answer

a. Probability = (No. of hurricanes developed from 5th storm) / (Total no of hurricanes ) = 11 / 67 = 0.1642

b. Probability = (No. of hurricanes developed from 12th storm) / (Total no of hurricanes ) = 5 / 67 = 0.07462

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