Valley View Hospital schedules doctors and nurses to work in the emergency room
ID: 3067372 • Letter: V
Question
Valley View Hospital schedules doctors and nurses to work in the emergency room (ER) based on expected demand for their services. The hospital is under intense pressure to keep its costs down, but having too few doctors and nurses could be disastrous. Thus, it is essential that the hospital be able to accurately forecast demand. The number of patients checking into the ER each month was recorded over the last four months as follows:
Use this information to answer the questions below. Remember to show your work and/or explain your reasoning.
a). Use a 3-month simple moving average to compute the forecasts for October and November. [6 pts]
b). Compute the forecasts for October and November using a 3-month weighted moving average with weights 0.7, 0.2, and 0.1. Use the higher weights on the more recent months. [6 pts]
c). Determine the forecasts for August through November using exponential smoothing with parameter ? = 0.4. [10 pts]
d). Compute the mean absolute deviation for the forecasts you determined in part c above. [6 pts]
e). Using simple linear regression, the hospital administrator determines that emergency room admissions are strongly related to the unemployment rate (expressed in %) for a given month. She has developed a regression model with a slope of 6.3 and an intercept of 21.5. If the unemployment rate for November is predicted to be 10%, what is the corresponding forecast for emergency room patients that month?
Explanation / Answer
(a) Computation of 3-month simple moving average to compute the forcast for October and November.We have,
In the 3- month simple moving average, we calculate the forcast number of patients of next month. In which, we take simple last 3- month number of patients and do simple average of that. The final result is next month number of patient forcast.
Forcast for October month:
Average of last 3- month = (76 + 92+83)/3 = 83.67
The expected number of patients checking into the ER is 83.67.
Forcast for Number Month:
Average of last 3- month actual number of patients = (92+83+85 ) / 3 = 86.67
Hence, The expected number of patients checking into the ER IS 86.67.
(b) Computation of the forecasts for October and November using a 3-month weighted moving average.We have,
The weighted factor is 0.7, 0.2 and 0.1
For the month of October:
3-Month weighted moving average = (76 x 0.1) + (92 x 0.2) + ( 83 x 0.7) = 84.10
Hence, 3- month waighted moving average for the expected patients cheking into the ER for the month of October is 84.10.
For the Month of November:
3-month weighted movin average = (92 x 0.1) + (83 x 0.2) + ( 85 x 0.7) = 85.3
Hence, 3- month waighted moving average for the expected patients cheking into the ER for the month of November is 85.3.
(c) Computation of the forecasts for August through November using exponential smoothing with parameter 0.4.We have,
(d) Computation of mean absolute deviation for the forcast.We have,
(i) Mean absolute deviation for 3-month moving average.We have,
Mean of Absolute deviation = (16.00 + 0.60 + 3.40) / 3
Mean of Absolute deviation = 6.67
(e) Computation of the corresponding forecast for emergency room patients that month, using simple linear regression.We have,
Simple Regression line is
Y = a + bx
Where,
Y = Expected number of patients for November
a = Intercept = 21.5
b= Slope = 6.3
x = Unemployment rate = 10%
Y = 21.5 + 6.3 x 10% = 22.13
Hence, expected number of patients in the month of November is 22.13.
Months Arrival of Patients Calculation Exponential smoothing forcast for arrival of patients July 76 August 92 76x0.4 + 76 x 0.6 76.00 September 83 92 x 0.4 + 76 x 0.6 82.40 October 85 83 x 0.4 + 92 x 0.6 88.40 November 85 x 0.4 + 83 x 0.6 83.80Related Questions
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