In controlled comparison research, the observed relationship between an independ

Question

In controlled comparison research, the observed relationship between an independent variable (X) and a dependent variable (Y) may be caused by some other, uncontrolled compositional difference (Z). So we always ask, “How else, besides the independent variable, are the groups I am comparing not the same?” For each of the three hypotheses below: (i) Think up a plausible alternative causal variable. (ii) Describe how this variable might affect the relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable.

Example. In a comparison of countries, those with decentralized governments have higher percentages of citizens who trust the government than do countries with centralized governments.

(i) Plausible alternative variable: size of country’s population

(ii) Countries with decentralized governments might also have smaller populations than countries with centralized governments. If smaller countries also have higher percentages of trusting citizens than do larger countries, then differences in size, not differences in decentralization-centralization, could explain the relationship between the independent and dependent variables.

A. In a comparison of individuals, younger people are more likely to vote Democratic than are older people.

B. In a comparison of countries, democracies are less likely than non-democracies to initiate international military conflict.

C. In a comparison of individuals, southerners are less likely to turn out to vote than are non southerners.

Explanation / Answer

A. In a comparison of individuals, younger people are more likely to vote Democratic than are older people.

(i) Plausible alternative variable: Race of voter

(ii) Older Americans are more likely to be white and they’re also more likely to be religious (Protestant or Catholic in particular) – and both of those demographic groups also tend to vote Republican for reasons that are quite separate from pension plans. (https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2016/sep/23/older-americans-vote-republican-fact-check-election-2016)

B. In a comparison of countries, democracies are less likely than non-democracies to initiate international military conflict.

(i) Plausible alternative variable: Size of GDP of the country, or the per capita income

(ii) if a country is already rich inresources such as water, food, and energy, they do not have to compete with other nations for those resources. However, if a country is lacking an important resource for the survival of their citizens, there may be conflict when that country tries to take a resource from another country.

C. In a comparison of individuals, southerners are less likely to turn out to vote than are non southerners.

(i) Plausible alternative variable: percentage of population with a high school degree

(ii) Education status affects the voting tendencies of people and people haveing lesser access to education may be lesser inclined to vote.

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