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2. Carl have equal chances of being the killer. We also know the following, Alf,

ID: 3059218 • Letter: 2

Question

2. Carl have equal chances of being the killer. We also know the following, Alf, Betty and Carl are on trial for murder. Before the evidence is given, Alf, Betty and · If Alf is the killer, there is a 50% chance that he would use poison. ·If Betty is the killer, there is a 10% chance that she would use poison. ·If Carl is the killer, there is a 99% chance that he would use poison. The autopsy results come in, and we now know that Bob was poisoned. Given this new evidence, what is the probability that Carl is the killer? In your opinion, do we have enough evidence to convic Carl? (This is sort of the idea behind circumstantial evidence).

Explanation / Answer

2. Carl have equal chances of being the killer. We also know the following, Alf, Betty and Carl are on trial for murder. Before the evidence is given, Alf, Betty and · If Alf is the killer, there is a 50% chance that he would use poison. ·If Betty is the killer, there is a 10% chance that she would use poison. ·If Carl is the killer, there is a 99% chance that he would use poison. The autopsy results come in, and we now know that Bob was poisoned. Given this new evidence, what is the probability that Carl is the killer? In your opinion, do we have enough evidence to convic Carl? (This is sort of the idea behind circumstantial evidence).