Question 1 contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). In

Question

Question 1 contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). In Excel, create forecasts for periods 6-13 using each of the following methods: 5 period simple moving average; 4 period weighted moving average (0.63, 0.26, 0.08, 0.03); exponential smoothing (alpha = 0.23 and the forecast for period 5 = 53); linear regression with the equation based on all 12 periods; and quadratic regression with the equation based on all 12 periods.  Round all numerical answers to two decimal places.

1.

The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are:

(1) 45  (2) 52 (3) 48 (4) 59  (5) 55  (6) 58  (7) 64  (8) 61  (9) 71  (10) 66  (11) 69  (12) 77

Using a 5 period simple moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

2.

Using the 4 period weighted moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

3.With exponential smoothing, the forecast for period 13 will be:

4.With linear regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

5.With quadratic regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

6.Considering only the forecasts for period 6-12, what is the lowest MAD value for any of the methods?

Explanation / Answer

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period demand MA WMA exponential 1 45 2 52 3 48 4 59 5 55 55.16 53 6 58 51.8 55.39 53.8 7 64 54.4 57 55.48 8 61 56.8 61.57 58.888 9 71 59.4 61.36 59.7328 10 66 61.8 67.45 64.23968 11 69 64 66.84 64.943808 12 77 66.2 68.14 66.5662848 68.8 73.86 70.7397709

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