Demand for heart transplant surgery performance at Kennedy Hospital has increase

Question

Demand for heart transplant surgery performance at Kennedy Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years as seen in the following tables. Year Heart Surgery 1 30 2 60 3 70 4 50 5 ?? 1. Use a three-year simple moving average to forecast demand in years 4 and 5 (2 pts.) 3 2. Using a three year weighted moving average with three periods, forecast demand in years 4 and 5. Assume that the weights are 3, 2, and I for the most recent, second most recent, and third most recent periods, respectively. (4 pts.) WALA(Yr 5) = The director of medical services predicted six years ago that demand in year 3 would be 50 surgeries. Using exponential smoothing, forecast demand in years 4 and 5 (c-0.3) (4 pts.) Exp (Yr 4)=ft:D+ (g)(40-50) 3· S2 4. Given the following trend projection model to forecast the demand Yt-40 + St. forecast demand in years 4 and 5 (t -0 in year 3) (2 pts.) S. Given forecast errors of -1, 4,8, and-3, what is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) (3 pts) (Use formula: MAD = I Actual-Forecast 1 / n]

Explanation / Answer

only last part is incorrect

not that we take absolute values in MAD

hence (1+ 4+8+3)/4

=16/4=4

Please rate

year heart surgery MA WMA exponential linear 1 30 2 60 3 70 50 4 50 53.33333333 60 56 45 5 60 58.33333 54.2 50 MAD 4

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