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1. Use a three-year simple moving average to forecast demand in years 4 and 5 (2

ID: 3043283 • Letter: 1

Question

1. Use a three-year simple moving average to forecast demand in years 4 and 5 (2 pts.) 2% MA(Yr5)= 50+20 +60. 3 Using a three year weighted moving average with three periods, forecast demand in years 4 and 5. Assume that the weights are 3, 2, and 1 for the most recent, second most recent, an third most recent periods, respectively. (4 pts.) The director of medical services predicted six years ago that demand in year 3 would be 50 surgeries. Using exponential smoothing, forecast demand in years 4 and 5 (a-03) (4 pts.) 3. Exp (Yr 4)-ft-5-(2)(40-50) Exp (Yr 5)- rsJa5% Given the following trend projection model to forecast the demand y 4 40 + 5 t. forecast demand in years 4 and 5 (t-o in year 3) (2 pts.) Speical 5. Given forecast errors of -1, 4, 8, and -3, what is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) (3 pts) (Use formula: MAD = / Actual-Forecast 1 / n ]

Explanation / Answer

t = 0 in year 3
so put t = 1 for year 4 and t = 2 for year 5 and solve the forecast equation , Y is a function of time t

Y = 40+5t

Y4 = 40 +5*1 = 45

Y5 = 40+5*2 = 50

5)

using the formula
MAD = Summation (actual-forecast)/n


we know that error is actual -forecast , we are given these values

MAD = (-1+4+8-3)/4 = 2