We are going to track the spread of a rumour in a group of 7 people. We begin wi
ID: 3021932 • Letter: W
Question
We are going to track the spread of a rumour in a group of 7 people. We begin with a rumour progenitor who passes on a juicy tidbit to a randomly chosen individual among the remaining six people in the group. The rumour continues to spread as follows: at each step the person who has just received the rumour passes it on to one of the other six people selected at random. (So it is possible for me to pass on the rumour only to have the recipient pass it right back to me.) An individual may receive the rumour more than once; he will pass it on to a randomly selected individual each time he receives it. Suppose the rumor is passed on r times. Determine the probability that the rumor does not return to the originator.Explanation / Answer
For the first person, the probability is 1 because they are the originator and can not tell to themselves. For the second, we can tell it to one of the (61=5) people because they can't tell it to themselves nor to the originator, and so for the third. Thus: 1*(5/6)^(r-1).
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