Hello! I am trying to solve the following problem but I have no idea where to st

Question

Hello! I am trying to solve the following problem but I have no idea where to start.

"The census bureau says that the 10 most common names in the United States are (in order): Smith, Johnson, Williams, Jones, Brown, Davis, Miller, Wilson, Moore, and Taylor. These names account for 5.6% of all U.S. residents. Out of curiosity, you look at the authors of the textbooks for your current courses. There are 12 authors in all. Would you be surprised if none of the names of these authors were among the 10 most common names? Give a probability to support your answer and explain the reasoning behind your calculation."

Could you give me some pointers?

Thanks!

Explanation / Answer

the probabilty that one author is not among the 10 most commonis

P1 = (1-0.056)

the probabilty that all 12 author are not among the 10 most common is

P = (1-0.056)12 = 0.50

so I won't be surprised given the probabiltiy is 50%

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