The chances of an El Nino event are about 1 in 4, but the study indicates that p

Question

The chances of an El Nino event are about 1 in 4, but the study indicates that probability increases to about 1 chance in 2 after an explosive eruption. If there is 60% probability of an explosive volcanic eruption in the tropics this year.

a) how likely is it that both events-an eruption and an El Nino event- will happen (assuming the study is correct)?

I did: .50 x .25 = 12.5% (AM I CORRECT?)

b) how likely is it that both events will happen if the study is wrong and the events are, in fact, statistically independent (i.e., tropical volcanic eruptions don't affect the likelihood of an El Nino event)?

I did: .60 x .25 = 15% (AM I CORRECT?)

If I'm wrong, please show me and correct me, thank you!

Explanation / Answer

Your answer to the second question is correct. However, the answer to the first question should be (0.60)*(0.50) = 0.30

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