1. Short-term, unanticipated, and nonrecurring factors in a time series provide

Question

1. Short-term, unanticipated, and nonrecurring factors in a time series provide the random variability known as:

a. Uncertainty.

b. The forecast error.

c. The residuals.

d. The irregular component.

2. To select a value for for exponential smoothing

a.   Use a small when the series varies substantially.

b.   Use a large when the series has little random variability.

c.   Use any value of between 0 and 1

d.   All of the alternatives are true.

Part B: Short written responses: Write a short statement of your response to the below questions. Be sure to read the question carefully and fully. There are no trick questions.

1. An alpha -value = 0.2 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden drop in demand than will an alpha -value = 0.4. Please provide your written response and explain your rationale.

2. If the random variability in a time series is great and exponential smoothing is being used to forecast, then a high alpha () value should be used. Please explain your rationale.

3. What is the main goal in decision analyses. Be specific and complete using terminology.

4.Why perform sensitivity analysis? Of what use is sensitivity analysis where good probability estimates are difficult to obtain?

5. Explain what conditions make quantitative forecasting methods appropriate.

6. How can error measures be used to determine the number of periods to use in a moving average? What are you assuming about the future when you make this choice?

7. Explain how qualitative methods frequently incorporate the opinions of multiple analysts.   

8. What is the primary intent of management’s use of graphical representations of their data versus analytic model evaluations of the data under consideration?

9. Describe in your own words the differences between cyclic and seasonal patterns of data.

10. Zipco Printing operates a shop that has five printing machines. The machines differ in their capacities to perform various printing operations due to differences in the machines' designs and operator skill levels. At the start of the workday there are five printing jobs to schedule. The manager must decide what the job-machine assignments should be.

a. How could a quantitative approach to decision making be used to solve this problem?

b. What would be the uncontrollable inputs for which data must be collected?

c. Define the decision variables, objective function, and constraints to appear in the mathematical model.

d. Is the model deterministic or stochastic? Why?

e. Suggest some simplifying assumptions for this problem.

Part C: Quantitative Question: Provide your responses via an EXCEL file and submit in the Assignment Module per the general instructions above.

The number of pizzas ordered on Friday evenings between 5:30 and 6:30 at a pizza delivery location for the last 10 weeks is shown below. (10 Points) Use exponential smoothing with smoothing constants of .2 and .8 to forecast a value for week 11. (10 Points) Compare your forecasts using MSE. (5 Points) Which smoothing constant would you prefer?

                        58, 46, 55, 39, 42, 63, 54, 55, 61, 52

Explanation / Answer

1 - SHort term, unanticipated non recurring factors are called the irregular component.

2- D, all the alternatives are true. Any value of alpha can be selected depending on certain conditions.

Please repost the other questions individually.

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