Question4 The intensity of load on a tower due to wind during a hurricane can be
ID: 2924192 • Letter: Q
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Question4 The intensity of load on a tower due to wind during a hurricane can be either high (H) or medium (M). The duration of the load can be long (L) or short (S). If the duration of load is long, then the probability of it being high is 0.6. If the intensity of load is high, then the probability of duration being short is 0.3. The probability of long duration load occuring Determine the probability of duration of load being long given that the intensity of load is high? Determine the probability of duration of load being long and the intensity of load is high? Determine the probability of load being high intensity?Explanation / Answer
P(high intensity | long duration) = 0.6
P(short duration | high intensity) = 0.3
P(long duration) = 0.2
P(short duration) = 1 - 0.2 = 0.8
a) P(long duration | high intensity) = 1 - P(short duration | high intensity) = 0.7
b) P(long duration and high intensity) = P(high intensity | long duration) * P(long duration) = 0.6 * 0.2 = 0.12
c) P(high intensity) = P(long duration and high intensity) / P(long duration | high intensity) = 0.12 / 0.7 = 0.1714
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