Activity 15.4 The Threat of Rising Seas Name: Date: In planning for coastal mana

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Activity 15.4 The Threat of Rising Seas Name: Date: In planning for coastal management and safe and economical coasual develepment, responsible planning comnisions and real estate developers should "play it safe"and assume that sea level will continue to rise. There are many predictions of future rises in global mean sea level, but regional trends should alho be considered as in these examples A Imagine that you are planning to buy a shorefroel property in Occan Cliy, Maryland, this year. You plan to une the propernty for family vacation getaways over the next 50 years and then sell the property. The ground floor of the property was 1.2 m above mean sea level in 2010 1. According to NOAA, the historic rate of sea level rise here since 1975 has been 5.48 +/-1.67 mm/year, Using the plas or minus erroe, what has been the minimum rate and the maximum rate of mean sea level rise here in mm/year? mm/yr. minimum rate mm/yt, maximum rate 2. Using the minimum and maximum rates above and recalling that 1 in.-25.4 mm, calculate how much sea level will rise in mm and in. at Ocean City over the next 50 years. minimum mm maximum in. maximum (d) 3. Local mean sea level is the average position of sea level between low and high tides. High tides occasionally reach 0.88 m (2.9 ft.) above mean sea level here, and storm surges often raise sea level an additional 0.3 m (I ft.). Whern Hurricane Sandy passed offshore of Ocean City in 2012, the storm surge caused a total storm tide of 3.59 feet (Further porth at Bergen Point tide gauge, Staten Island, New York, the National Weather Service reports a 2.87 m storm surge on top of a 1.57 m high tide, bringing the water level to 4.44H m above local mean sea level during Hurricane Sandy) Given these natural day-to-day variations in sea level and the prospect of sea level rise calculated above, would it be a wise decision to purchase the shorefront property that you planned to buy? Explain your reasoning 4. The city of Ocean City expects the following temporary increases in sea level due to storm surges in harricanes. How would this affect your purchasing decision? Why? Category 1 hurricane: 74-95 mph winds, storm surge 1.22-1.52 m (4-5 f.) Category 2 hurricane: 96-110 mph winds, storm surge 1.83-2.44 m (6-8 t.) Category 3 hurricanes 111-130 mph winds, storm surge 2.74-3.66 m (9-12ft.) Category 4 hurricane: 131-155 mph winds, storm surge 3.96-5.49 m (13-18 ft.) Calegory 5 hurricane:>156 mph winds, storm surge >549 m ( 18 8.) B REFLECT &DISCUSS; Based on your analysis of data in part A, what would you suggest as the minimum elevation of the floor of any new house or commercial building constracted along the Ocean City coast? Explain. 408

Explanation / Answer

1) minimum rate = 5.48 - 1.67 = 3.81 mm/yr

maximum rate = 5.48 + 1.67 = 7.15 mm/yr

2) Minimum : 3.81*50 = 190.5 mm =7.5 in

Maximum: 7.15*50 = 357.5 mm = 14.07 in

3) While planning for future we must always be prepared for the worst-case scenario. The high tide might reach up to 2.9 ft. The maximum rise over next 50 years as calculated above, is 14.07 in which is 1.17 ft. Therefore, during high tides (a natural day to day variation), the water might rise up to 2.9+1.17 = 4.07 ft and hence the house which is 4 ft above MSL would be under water even without a storm. Further, any smallest of the storm will also make the house highly vulnerable to disaster. A storm surge might raise the sea level by additional 1ft, and therefore, total surge with high tidal factor is 1.17+1+2.9 = 5.07 ft. Whereas the property is only 4ft above MSL. Therefore, it would not be a wise decision to the property.

4) This would make me not go for the property as even the least impactful category 1 hurricane can also cause a surge above 4 ft (1.17+4+2.9 = 8.07 ft).

5) The average storm surge = 1 ft, maximum sea level rise = 1.17 ft and the tidal increase = 2.9 ft. Total = 5.07 ft

For category 4 hurricane, Total raise = 18 + 1.17 + 2.9 = 22.07 ft.

The safest option would be that minimum elevation of the floor of any house or commercial building constructed along the Ocean City coast must be above 22 ft. For economic purposes, if that elevation is not feasible, then to avoid at least the category 2 hurricane situation a minimum elevation of 12 ft (8 + 1.17 + 2.9) must be provided.

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