1. why is short term prediction of earthquakes so much less successful than long
ID: 283590 • Letter: 1
Question
1. why is short term prediction of earthquakes so much less successful than long term prediction? why do you think seismologists are extremely cautious about making predictions? do you think it will ever be possible to predict earthquakes accurately and issue effective early warning? research your answer
2. which of the techniques used to study earth's interior could also be used to study other plants? which ones cannot and why? scientists know more about the surface of the sun than about the interior of our own plant; why do you think that is so?
Explanation / Answer
The earthquakes happens due to movement of tectonic plates of earth. It is natural phenomena depends on millions of factors. But so far what we know about earthquake predictions based on few factors. So it is not possible predict earthquake accurately based on present technology.
Shor term predictions of earthquakes less successful because they mostly associated with major earthquakes. Some of them occur before and some after major earthquake. The intervals of these short term predictions are random. Based on available data analysis of short term earthquake it is very difficult to conclude predictions on short term earthquakes.
Long term predictions, based on available data, they give some ideas to conclude probability of next major earthquake. We also aware locations of centres of plate tectonics and their study gives some ideas about their predictions. The long term earthquakes occurs movement of continental plates and their study and seismology of that area may lead to predict.
Seismologists are extremely cautious to predict and announce probability of next earthquake based on their studies. Because the present technology is not enough to predict accurately. The factors controlling earthquakes not yet fully assessed because of non-availability of technology. So seismologists are fully cautious on earthquake predictions.
I think one day our earth scientists get success in discovering technology to predict earth quake accurately. Earthquakes are nature controlled based on certain natural factors. So their study may lead to interpret actual factors responsible for earthquake and making their related instruments to detect earthquake occurring dates in future
The present day technology is to study earth’s interior is depending upon seismic instruments. The generated P and S waves from earth is used to interpret by seismic instruments to know the earth’s interior structure. Our seismologist made significant achievement in interpreting the earth’s interior.
The seismic instruments used to study earth’s interior also useful to study the interiors of planets. But the accurate information of interiors of planets can be possible if we take seismic instruments there ane measure by placing on surface of the planet and by creating seismic waves.
Scientists know more about surface of the earth than the interior of the earth. We are receiving signals of the surface of the earth and the instruments made are capable of detecting changes on the surface of the sun. The sun radiations, explosion created waves on surface of sun, magnetic effect of these explosions are detected and measured by instruments. These are all possible because the changes on the surface of sun propagated in the form electromagnetic waves and detected by instruments.
But the constant changes in the interior of the earth not reflected and noticed every time. The major earthquakes seismoloty give some information about interior of the earth. Remaining changes happening in the interior of earth like magma intrusions, changes in mantle layers movement, tectonic plates movements are not reflected as waves to surface of the earth, so their detection not possible with available instruments and technology.
So our scientists know more about the surface of the sun and not the interior of the earth.
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