As a financial analyst at Glencolin International (GI) you have been asked to re

Question

As a financial analyst at Glencolin International (GI) you have been asked to revisit your analysis of the two capital investment alternatives submitted by the production department of the firm. (Detailed discussion of these alternatives is in the Mini Case at the end of Chapter 10.) The CFO is concerned that the analysis to date has not really addressed the risk in this project. Your task is to employ scenario and sensitivity analysis to explore how your original recommendation might change when subjected to a number of “what-ifs.” In your discussions with the CFO, the CIO and the head of the production department, you have pinpointed two key inputs to the capital budgeting decision: initial software development costs and expected savings in production costs (before tax). By properly designing the contract for software development, you are confident that initial software costs for each alternative can be kept in a range of plus or minus 15 percent of the original estimates. Savings in production costs are less certain because the software will involve new technology that has not been implemented before. An appropriate range for these costs is plus or minus 40 percent of the original estimates. As the capital budgeting analyst, you are required to answer the following in your memo to the CFO: 1. Conduct sensitivity analysis to determine which of the two inputs has a greater input on the choice between the two projects. 2. Conduct scenario analysis to assess the risks of each alternative in turn. What are your conclusions? 3. Explain what your sensitivity and scenario analyses tell you about your original recommendations

here is case based problem from chapter 10 :

As a financial analyst at glencolin international (GI) you have been asked to evaluate two capital investments alternatives submitted by the production department of the firm. Before beginning your analysis, you note that company policy has set the cost of capital at 15 percent for all proposed projects. As a small business, GI pays corporate taxes at the rate of 35 percent. the proposed capital project calls for developing new computer software to facilitate partial automation production in GI's plant. Alternative A has initial software development costs projected at $185,000, while alternative B would cost $320,000. Software development costs would be capitalized and qualify for a capital cost allowance (CCA) rate of 30-percent. In addition, IT would hire software consultant under either alternative to assist in making the decision whether to invest in the project for a fee of $16,000 and this cost would be expensed when it is incurred To recover the costs, GI's IT department would charge the production department for the use of the computer time at the rate of $375 per hour and estimates that it would take 182 hours of computer time per year to run the new software under either alternative. GI owns all its computer and does not currently operate them at capacity. The information technology (IT) plan calls for this excess capacity to continue in the future. For security reasons, it is compnay policy not to rent excess computing capacity to outside users. If the new partial automation of production is put in place, expected savings in production cost (before tax) are projected as follows: Alternative A: (Year 1: $82,000) (Year 2 : $82,000) (Year 3: $64,000) (Year 4: $53,000) (Yeat 5: $35,000) Alternative B: (Year 1: $112,000) (Year 2: $124,000) (Year 3: $101,000) (Year 4: $93,000) (Year 5: $56,000) As the capital budgeting analyst, you are required to answer the following in your memo to the production department: (a) Calculate the Net Present Value of each of the alternatives. Which would you recommend? (b) The CFO suspects that there is high risk in that new technology will render the production equipment and this automation software obsolete after only three years. Which alternative would you recommend? (Cost savings for years 1 to 3 would remain the same.) (c) GI could use excess resources in the engineering department to develop a way to eliminate this step of manufacturing process by the end of year 3. The salvage value of the equipment (including CCA and tax impact) would be $50,000 at the end of year Year 3, $50,000 at the end of year 4, and zero after 5 years. Should engineering develop the solution and remove the equipment before the five years are up? Which alternative ? When?

Explanation / Answer

1.)

2.) Project A will become less risky in comparison to project B as shown, If cost and everything is increased

3.) Out of the two alternatives Chosen projec A is more worthwhile as decrease in cost as project B involves heavy cost in comparison to project B.

a.)

Recommended as it has less negative value as compared to alternative B.

b.)

Again alternative, A should be chosen as before as value is less than alternative B.

c.)

Project A should be chosen, Because A project has less negative NPV. Yes It should develope the solution.

Scenario Summary Current Values: Change in intial costs Change in intial costs decrease initial software development costs A 185000 212750 157250 initial software development costs B 320000 368000 272000

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