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5.) Consider the following information: Rate of Return if State Occurs State of

ID: 2741966 • Letter: 5

Question

5.) Consider the following information: Rate of Return if State Occurs State of Economy Probability of State of Economy Stock A Stock B Stock C Boom .15 .35 .45 .27 Good .55 .16 .10 .08 Poor .25 –.01 –.06 –.04 Bust .05 –.12 –.20 –.09 Requirement 1: Your portfolio is invested 30 percent each in A and C, and 40 percent in B. What is the expected return of the portfolio? (Do not round your intermediate calculations.) Requirement 2: (a) What is the variance of this portfolio? (Do not round your intermediate calculations.) (b) What is the standard deviation? (Do not round your intermediate calculations.)

Explanation / Answer

1.

State of Economy

Probability of State of Economy

Stock A

Stock B

Stock C

Rate of Return

Rate of return * Probability

Rate of Return

Rate of return * Probability

Rate of Return

Rate of return * Probability

Boom

0.15

            0.3500

                               0.0525

            0.4500

                               0.0675

            0.2700

                                                           0.0405

Good

0.55

            0.1600

                               0.0880

            0.1000

                               0.0550

            0.0800

                                                           0.0440

Poor

0.25

           -0.0100

                              -0.0025

           -0.0600

                              -0.0150

           -0.0400

                                                         -0.0100

Bust

0.05

           -0.1200

                              -0.0060

           -0.2000

                              -0.0100

           -0.0900

                                                         -0.0045

                               0.1320

                               0.0975

                                                           0.0700

Stock

Expected return

Weight

Weighted return

Stock A

                    0.1320

30%

                     0.0396

Stock B

                    0.0975

40%

                     0.0390

Stock C

                    0.0700

30%

                     0.0210

                     0.0996

Expected return of the portfolio = 9.96%

2.

Stock

Expected return

Weight

Weighted return

(Expected return - expected return of portfolio)^2

Stock A

                    0.1320

30%

                     0.0396

0.00105

Stock B

                    0.0975

40%

                     0.0390

0.00000

Stock C

                    0.0700

30%

                     0.0210

0.00088

                     0.0996

0.00193

a. Variance of the portfolio = 0.00193

b. Standard deviation of the portfolio = Square root of 0.00193 = 0.0440 = 4.40%

State of Economy

Probability of State of Economy

Stock A

Stock B

Stock C

Rate of Return

Rate of return * Probability

Rate of Return

Rate of return * Probability

Rate of Return

Rate of return * Probability

Boom

0.15

            0.3500

                               0.0525

            0.4500

                               0.0675

            0.2700

                                                           0.0405

Good

0.55

            0.1600

                               0.0880

            0.1000

                               0.0550

            0.0800

                                                           0.0440

Poor

0.25

           -0.0100

                              -0.0025

           -0.0600

                              -0.0150

           -0.0400

                                                         -0.0100

Bust

0.05

           -0.1200

                              -0.0060

           -0.2000

                              -0.0100

           -0.0900

                                                         -0.0045

                               0.1320

                               0.0975

                                                           0.0700

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