Action Items: Go to the http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm to e
ID: 2652816 • Letter: A
Question
Action Items:
Go to the http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm to examine historical daily interest rates on U.S. Treasuries.
Scroll down to "Treasury constant maturities" and in the row "1-month" under "Nominal" click "Business day."
As you can see, rates on the one-month U.S. Treasury bill are provided for each business day from July 31, 2001 to the present. For this assignment you are asked to pick a business date five years ago this month. (For example, in January 2012 I would pick a business date in January 2007.)
Then, using this row and the subsequent rows below it under “Treasury Constant Maturities” determine the shape of the yield curve (See Figure 6.11in the textbook for examples of Treasury yield curves) on that date five years ago based on the rates published by the Fed by completing the table below for the listed Treasury maturities (see example below):
Business Date Chosen Five Years Ago
7/15/2010
1-month Nominal T-bill Rate on that Date
0.16
3-month Nominal T-bill Rate on that Date
0.15
6-month Nominal T-bill Rate on that Date
0.2
1-year Nominal T-note Rate on that Date
0.27
5-year Nominal T-note Rate on that Date
1.76
10-year Nominal T-note Rate on that Date
3
20-year Nominal T-bond Rate on that Date
3.77
30-year Nominal T-bond Rate on that Date
3.97
Answer the following questions:
On your selected date was the yield curve rising, falling, or flat? What explanation(s) would you give for this shape?
From my selected date, the yield curve is rising. This is due to the fact that the longer money is invested the more you’re compensated and earn due to the fact that the interest rates being higher.
Assume that two U.S. Treasury securities were purchased at par ($1000) on your selected date five years ago: 1) a 10-year T-note and 2) a 20-year T-bond. Also assume that for each of the two securities the reported nominal rate that you found above was the coupon rate at issuance.
Assuming semi-annual coupon payments, calculate the value of each bond today after 5 years based on the current 5-year Treasury constant maturity nominal rate for the original 10-year note and a current 15-year rate (assume it is the average of the current Treasury constant maturity nominal 10- and 20-year rates) for the original 20-year bond at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm.
Complete the following tables (see example below):
10-Year Bond Purchased for $1000 5 Years Ago
Original Value
$1000
Coupon Rate (From table you completed above at the chosen date from 5 years ago, the original 10-year Nominal T-bond Rate divided by 2 for semi-annual payments)
Current 5-Year Yield to Maturity (The most recent 5-year Nominal T-note Rate reported at the Fed site divided by 2 for semi-annual payments)
Number of Semi-Annual Periods Remaining
Current Value*
Gain or Loss on the Bond over the 5 years
20-Year Bond Purchased for $1000 5 Years Ago
Original Value
$1000
Coupon Rate (From table you completed above at the chosen date from 5 years ago, the original 20-year Nominal T-bond Rate divided by 2 for semi-annual payments)
Current 15-Year Yield to Maturity (Take the average of the most recent 10- and 20-year Nominal T-bond Rates reported at the Fed site, and then divide this average rate by 2 for semi-annual payments)
Number of Semi-Annual Periods Remaining
30
Current Value*
Gain or Loss on the Bond over the 5 years
*Current Value = PVBond = Coupon Payment +
b) Did you gain or lose more on one bond relative to the other? Explain.
Business Date Chosen Five Years Ago
7/15/2010
1-month Nominal T-bill Rate on that Date
0.16
3-month Nominal T-bill Rate on that Date
0.15
6-month Nominal T-bill Rate on that Date
0.2
1-year Nominal T-note Rate on that Date
0.27
5-year Nominal T-note Rate on that Date
1.76
10-year Nominal T-note Rate on that Date
3
20-year Nominal T-bond Rate on that Date
3.77
30-year Nominal T-bond Rate on that Date
3.97
Explanation / Answer
Question
(‘1)
Business Date Chosen Five Years Ago
07/21/2010
1- Month Nominal T- Bill Rate
0.16
3- Month Nominal T- Bill Rate
0.16
6- Month Nominal T- Bill Rate
0.19
1- Year Nominal T- Bill Rate
0.27
5- Year Nominal T- Bill Rate
1.66
10- Year Nominal T- Bill Rate
2.9
20- Year Nominal T- Bill Rate
3.68
30- Year Nominal T- Bill Rate
3.89
Yield Curve Observation- By observation of yield curve for selected date ( 07/21/2010) it is appearing that it is rising. Increase in yield with increase in duration represents risk associated with time. Investor expects higher rate of return for taking the risk of lending money for a longer period of time.
If short-term yields are lower than long-term yields then this will called positive yield curve or normal yield curve.
In negative yield curve yields for longer duration is lower than yields for shorter duration.
If it is flat line then this will called flat yield curve.
(‘2)
10 –Year Bond Purchased for $ 1000 on 07/21/2010
Original Value
$ 1000
Coupon Rate
1.45
Current 5 year Yield to Maturity
0.835 ( 1.67 /2 – 07/17/2015 - % year T note)
Number of Semi-annual periods remaining
10
Current Value
543.90
Gain or Loss on the bond over the 5 years
456.10
Current Value
Semi Annual Payment= $ 14.45
Current Yield= 0.835
PV of Bond = PV of Coupon Payment + PV of Maturity Value
Discount rate= 0.835
PV of bond= (6.605 x 14.45 ) x 1000 x 0.448
PV of bond= 543.90
20 –Year Bond Purchased for $ 1000 on 07/21/2010
Original Value
$ 1000
Coupon Rate
1.84
Current 15 year Yield to Maturity
3.94
Number of Semi-annual periods remaining
30
Current Value
Gain or Loss on the bond over the 5 years
Please calculate same as bove way as time is vey nesar to expire.
Business Date Chosen Five Years Ago
07/21/2010
1- Month Nominal T- Bill Rate
0.16
3- Month Nominal T- Bill Rate
0.16
6- Month Nominal T- Bill Rate
0.19
1- Year Nominal T- Bill Rate
0.27
5- Year Nominal T- Bill Rate
1.66
10- Year Nominal T- Bill Rate
2.9
20- Year Nominal T- Bill Rate
3.68
30- Year Nominal T- Bill Rate
3.89
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