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Fruit Computer Company is certain that its market share during 1999 will be betw

ID: 1716780 • Letter: F

Question

Fruit Computer Company is certain that its market share during 1999 will be between 10% and 50% of the microcomputer market. Fruit is also that its profits during 1999 will be between $5 million and $30 million. Here, y_1 = Fruit's market share during 1999 y_2 = Fruit's profit during 1999 (in millions of dollars) First, we ask Fruit for the certainty equivalent of a 1/2 chance at the worst market share (10%) and a 1/2 chance at the best market share (50%), with y_2 fixed at level (say y_2 = $515 million). Suppose the certainty equivalent of is (30%, $15). Second, we fix attribute 2 at some other level (say, y_2 = $20 million) and find Fruit's certainty equivalent for the following lottery: If attribute 1 is utility independent (UT) of attribute 2, the certainty equivalent of this lottery should be close to (30%, $20). For other values of y_2 (say, y_2 - $5, $10, $25, and $30), we check if the certainty equivalent of the lottery is close to (30%, y_2). Suppose this is the case. Then we repeat this procedure with other values of market share, replacing 10% and 50%. Let us say that similar results ensue. We assume that attributes 1 and 2 are (at least approximately) mutually utility independent (MUT) We now determine whether Fruit is indifferent between

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