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1.Your club has 20 members. You are in charge of producing a committee of four m

ID: 1168790 • Letter: 1

Question

1.Your club has 20 members. You are in charge of producing a committee of four members. How many different committees are possible?

2.At the end of the spring semester, a student mentioned that her family knew they would take their vacation in the upper Midwest and the main activity would be bicycling (B) or hiking (H). The family was 50% sure that the vacation would be in Wisconsin (WI), and 20% sure that the vacation would be in Michigan (MI). If the vacation was in Wisconsin, there was a 40% chance that the main activity would be bicycling. If the vacation was in Minnesota, there was a 50% chance that the main activity would be bicycling. If the vacation was in Michigan, there was a 10% chance that the main activity would be bicycling. Assume the vacation will be in only one state. Complete the chart below. Hint, it would help to draw a decision tree.

           

P(WI)

P(B | WI)

P(H | WI)

P(B & WI)

P(H & WI)

P(MN)

P(B | MN)

P(H | MN)

P(B & MN)

P(H & MN)

P(MI)

P(B | MI)

P(H | MI)

P(B & MI)

P(H & MI)

P(B)

P(WI | B)

P(MI | B)

P(MN | B)

P(H)

P(WI | H)

P(MI | H)

P(MN | H)

P(WI)

P(B | WI)

P(H | WI)

P(B & WI)

P(H & WI)

P(MN)

P(B | MN)

P(H | MN)

P(B & MN)

P(H & MN)

P(MI)

P(B | MI)

P(H | MI)

P(B & MI)

P(H & MI)

P(B)

P(WI | B)

P(MI | B)

P(MN | B)

P(H)

P(WI | H)

P(MI | H)

P(MN | H)

Explanation / Answer

Different possible committees = 20^4 = 160000

P(B I WI) P(H I WI) P(B & WI) P(H & WI) P(WI) 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.3 P(B I MN) P(H I MN) P(B & MN) P(H & MN) P(MN) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.15 0.15 P(B I MI) P(H I MI) P(B & MI) P(H & MI) P(MI) 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.02 0.18 P(WI I B) P(MN I B) P(WI I B) P(B) 0.02 0.5 0.3 0.2 P(H) 0.27 0.5 0.3 0.2