1 )If Theil\'s U is less than 1 for some forecasting method M , Forecasting meth
ID: 1139013 • Letter: 1
Question
1 )If Theil's U is less than 1 for some forecasting method M,
Forecasting method M is more accurate than the simple moving average forecasting method.
Forecasting method M is less accurate than the Naive 1 forecasting method.
Forecasting method M is more accurate than the Naive 1 forecasting method.
Forecasting method M is, on average, off by less than 1% from the actual data.
Forecasting method M is less accurate than the simple exponential smoothing forecast with a = 0.5.
2)Suppose the following table shows the forecast for the number of people (in thousands) who have two or more jobs in the United States.
Calculate the RMSE (root mean squared error). Take all calculations to three decimal places.
__________
9.187
None of these.
82.656
7.111
113.899
a)Forecasting method M is more accurate than the simple moving average forecasting method.
b)Forecasting method M is less accurate than the Naive 1 forecasting method.
c)Forecasting method M is more accurate than the Naive 1 forecasting method.
d)Forecasting method M is, on average, off by less than 1% from the actual data.
e)Forecasting method M is less accurate than the simple exponential smoothing forecast with a = 0.5.
Explanation / Answer
1.
C
If Theil’s U is less than 1 for the forecast M, then forecast M is more accurate than just guessing that is naïve method.
2.
RMSE = (((6755-6183)^2 + (6733-6580)^2 + (6122-6886)^2 + (6099-6148)^2)/4)^.5
RMSE = 483.914
Sales table is not given for question 3, so repost it again.
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