1. Which feature of long-term illness makes sufferers vulnerable to superstitiou
ID: 1108874 • Letter: 1
Question
1. Which feature of long-term illness makes sufferers vulnerable to superstitious learning regarding treatment efficacy? A. The low base rate of illness occurrence B. The uneven course of long-term illness C. Overestimation of risk D. The stigma associated with certain diseases E. The fact that such illnesses are alwavs terminal 2. Fill in the blank: An astrologer cautions that "some details of your sun sign may not seem literally like vou, but don't judge too quicklv; these mav express hidden tendencies which vou express in some other way." This is best described as an attempt to A. place the burden of sense-making on the consumer B. imply that they are showing only a sample of their product's full capabilities C. establish authority D. blame failure on the consumer play up successes while playing down failures 3. Which of the following is not an error of reasoning associated with belief in a "law of small numbers?" A. Underestimation of risk in small-sample extrapolation B. Error in extrapolating from small samples C. Underappreciation for the effects of random variation D. Underweighting of causally disconnected evidence E. Overestimation of trend stabilityExplanation / Answer
1. (B) The uneven course of long term illness
2. (E) play up successes while playing down failures
3. (D) Underweighting of casually disconnected evidence
4. (B) was inaccurate, but unbiased
5. (E) 75;25
6. (C) blame failure on the consumer
7. (B) the regression effect
8. (D) Likelihood ratio
9. (B) Base rate neglect
10. (B) posterior marginal
11. (B) Anchoring and adjustment
12.(C) Interpretation of chance deviations as casually significant
13. (B) fairly poor, we tend to believe what is consistent with our preconceived notions
14. (c) create a sense of authority
15. (D) tails preferred to heads
16. (E) punishment is a more effective motivator than reward
17. (D) focus on the raw number of matches
18. (A) Excessive concern with the study of failed projects
19. (E) the event was atypical
20 (A) for a focal hypothesis; evidence against the hypothesis or relating to competing hypothesis
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