5) Demand for sanitary towels (in number of boxes) is given in the following tab

Question

5) Demand for sanitary towels (in number of boxes) is given in the following table for the past 9 periods: 3 6 Demand (D 243513 22 0 9 27 11 a) (5pts) Which method would you choose to forecast demand in the coming periods? b) (15pts) Based on your method in part-(a) forecast the demand during periods 10, 11, and 12 c) (10pts) Suppose that actual demand during period 10 turned out to be 20 boxes, then how would you revise your forecasts for periods 11 and 12. While solving this problem choose some reasonable parameters whenever you need them. Make all necessary initializations.

Explanation / Answer

a) The forecast method that can be used here is 3 point moving average method.

b) According to 3 point moving average method

Forecast for period 10 = (19+27 +11)/3 = 19

Forecast for period 11 = (27+11+19)/3 = 19

Forecast for period 12 = (19+19+11)/3 = 16.33

c) If actual demand of period 10 is 20 boxes

Then

Forecast for period 11 = (27+11+20)/3 = 19.33

Forecast for period 12 = (11+20+19.33)/3 = 16.78

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