Please show solutions so that I can practice your method. 1) Daily demand for ne

Question

Please show solutions so that I can practice your method.

1) Daily demand for newspapers for the last 10 days has been as follows: 12, 13, 16, 15, 12, 18, 14, 12, 13, 15 (listed from oldest to most recent). Forecast sales for the next day using a two-day moving average.

A) 13

B) 15   

C) 28

D) 12.5           

E) 14

2) Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 122, 128, 100, and 155 (listed from oldest to most recent). The best forecast of enrollment next semester, based on a three-semester moving average, would be     
A) 116.7       

B) 127.7          

C) 135.0          

D) 126.3         

E) 168.3

3) Daily demand for newspapers for the last 10 days has been as follows: 12, 13, 16, 15, 12, 18, 14, 12, 13, 15 (listed from oldest to most recent). Forecast sales for the next day using a three-day weighted moving average where the weights are 3, 1, and 1 (the highest weight is for the most recent number).

A) 13.0

B) 14.0

C) 12.8

D) 70.0

E) none of the above

4) Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 120, 126, 110, and 130 (listed from oldest to most recent). Develop a forecast of enrollment next semester using exponential smoothing with an alpha = 0.2. Assume that an initial forecast for the first semester was 120 (so the forecast and the actual were the same).

A) 120

B) 118.96

C) 121.17

D) 130

E) none of the above

5) Daily high temperatures in the city of Houston for the last week have been: 93, 94, 93, 95, 92, 86, 98 (yesterday).

(a)        Forecast the high temperature today using a 3-day moving average.

(b)        Forecast the high temperature today using a 2-day moving average.

(c)        Calculate the mean absolute deviation based on a 2-day moving average, covering all days in which you can have a forecast and an actual temperature.

Explanation / Answer

1) 2 day moving average is given by
Ft = (Ft-1 + Ft-2)/2

Forecast for the next day = (13 + 15)/2 = 14

Ans) E) 14

2) 3 semester moving average is given by

Ft = (Ft-1 + Ft-2 + Ft-3)/3

Forecast for the next semester = (128 + 100 +155)/3 = 127.67

Ans) B) 127.7

3) three-day weighted moving average is given by

Ft = (Weight*Ft-1 + Weight*Ft-2 + Weight*Ft-3) = (3*15+1*13+1*12) = 70

Ans) D) 70

4) Initial forecast = 120

alpha - 0.2

forecast = alpha*Actual + (1-alpha)*Forecast

Ans) C) 121.17

E) (a) 3 day moving average   Ft = (Ft-1 + Ft-2 + Ft-3)/3

(b) 2 day moving average is given by
Ft = (Ft-1 + Ft-2)/2

(c) Mean of the given data = 93

MAD = sum of (absoulte deviation) / n = 1.25

Semester Actual enrollment Exponential smoothing forecast 1 120 120 2 126 120 3 110 121.2 4 130 118.96 5 121.168

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