Forecasting is a very valuable tool for healthcare managers and a key component

Question

Forecasting is a very valuable tool for healthcare managers and a key component of our quantitative analysis approach to leadership. Crucial here is an understanding of when to utilize forecasting and which specific forecasting model to apply in your own medical management role. Think about your own healthcare organization (if you are already working in the field) or a healthcare organization in your community and identify something specific which you would like to forecast for the organization. How would you apply forecasting to that specific service or process, and which forecasting model would be most appropriate and most effective? Be as specific as possible and explain the rationale for your choices. If you need help in identifying a service to forecast, feel free to contact your instructor for guidance.

Explanation / Answer

Forecasting'

The use of historic data to determine the direction of future trends. Forecasting is used by companies to determine how to allocate their budgets for an upcoming period of time. This is typically based on demand for the goods and services it offers, compared to the cost of producing them. Investors utilize forecasting to determine if events affecting a company, such as sales expectations, will increase or decrease the price of shares in that company. Forecasting also provides an important benchmark for firms which have a long-term perspective of operations.

Current healthcare planning assumes that a combination of primary and community careinitiatives and public health improvements will reduce the need for hospital beds, despite an increasingly elderly population.

However, capacity and financial planning forecasts for healthcare services can be frustrated by a lack of means to allow for such

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