summary of this in an easier words..dont really understand this .. The increase
ID: 105280 • Letter: S
Question
summary of this in an easier words..dont really understand this ..
The increase doesn’t seem to be related to better reporting in recent years, says Tippett, so the trends seem to be genuine. The team then looked to weather data for a scientific explanation.
One parameter meteorologists use to help identify regions at increased risk of severe weather is called convective available potential energy (CAPE). It’s a measure of the tendency for warm air at Earth’s surface to rise, and most climate models suggest that CAPE will increase as the world’s climate warms. But when Tippett and his colleagues looked at day-to-day estimates for CAPE over the contiguous United States between 1979 (the earliest data available) and 2015, they didn’t see any long-term increase. “This is an unexpected finding,” he notes.
But the team did find a substantial increase in another known risk factor for tornado formation: a parameter called storm relative helicity (SRH), which is related to the differences in wind speed and direction at various altitudes between ground level and 3 kilometers. Current models don’t suggest that this factor will increase as the climate warms, but the new study shows that it has in recent years. That, in turn, hints that scientists may not fully understand the link between SRH and climate.
“I think the work is well done and intriguing,” says Harold Brooks, a meteorologist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma, who was not involved in the study. Overall, the team’s findings provide at least a partial answer to the disturbing trend of the last 50 years, he says. The link between the changes in severe tornado outbreaks and an increase in storm relative helicity is unsurprising but difficult to explain, Brooks says. “We don’t really have a good conceptual model for why SRH should increase as the planet warms.”
The next big question, adds Brooks, is to sort out whether long-term climate cycles such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are playing a role in those tornado trends. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is related to sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean and, like El Niño, it affects weather far away. Alternatively, researchers might find via further analyses that the increase in SRH is truly to blame. “My money is on the latter,” says Brooks, “but I want essentially even odds and small amounts being wagered.”
Explanation / Answer
Two geographical phenomenon is talked about in the passage. First one is the CAPE (connective available potential energy) and SRH ( Storm relative helicity)
CAPE is the measure of the tendency of warm air at earth's surface to rise.
SRH is related to the difference in wind speed and direction at various altitudes between ground level and 3 kilometres.This risk factor is related to the formation of tornadoes.
Most climatic models suggest that CAPE will increase as the earth warms but when Tippet and his colleagues studied the day to day estimate for CAPE over united states between 1979 and 2015 they didn't find any long term increase in CAPE rather they found a substantial increase in SRH.
Our current models don't suggest that SRH should increase which tells us that the scietist may not fully understand the link between SRH and climate.
Harold Brooks, a meteorologist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma, comments on this and says that we need to find the reason why the SRH would increase in the long run if the earth warms and should check whether other climate cycles like Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are playing a role in those tornado trends.The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is related to sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean and, like El Niño, it affects weather far away, so his comment basically says that the scientist need to find the reason of this unexpected study and why is SRH increasing if the earth warms.
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