Radiative forcing is the term used to describe changes in solar energy (in units
ID: 916629 • Letter: R
Question
Radiative forcing is the term used to describe changes in solar energy (in units of W/m^2) following system perturbations like large increases in greenhouse gases. It has been estimated that a doubling of atmospheric CO_2 concentration causes a radiative forcing of 4.2 W/m^2. Calculate the change in temperature associated with this doubling of CO_2 concentration if the mean climate sensitivity parameter (a proportionality constant relating radiative forcing and temperature change) is 0.54 degree C/(W/m^2). If the current CO_2 concentration is 398 ppm, estimate the CO_2 concentration that will increase the current temperature by 1 degree C.Explanation / Answer
1. The climate sensitivity parameter, (global mean surface temperature response Ts to the radiative forcing RF) is defined as:
Ts / RF =
Temperature change, Ts = * RF
= 0.54 oC/(W/m2) * 4.2 (W/m2)
= 2.268 oC
2. The relationship between carbon dioxide and radiative forcing is'
RF = 5.35 ln C/C0
where C is the CO2 concentration in parts per million by volume and C0 is the reference concentration
Ts = * RF
or,1oC = 0.54 oC/(W/m2) * RF
or, RF = 1.85 (W/m2)
1.85 = 5.35*lnC/398
or, C = 562.6 ppm
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