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Radiative forcing is the term used to describe changes in solar energy (in units

ID: 916629 • Letter: R

Question

Radiative forcing is the term used to describe changes in solar energy (in units of W/m^2) following system perturbations like large increases in greenhouse gases. It has been estimated that a doubling of atmospheric CO_2 concentration causes a radiative forcing of 4.2 W/m^2. Calculate the change in temperature associated with this doubling of CO_2 concentration if the mean climate sensitivity parameter (a proportionality constant relating radiative forcing and temperature change) is 0.54 degree C/(W/m^2). If the current CO_2 concentration is 398 ppm, estimate the CO_2 concentration that will increase the current temperature by 1 degree C.

Explanation / Answer

1. The climate sensitivity parameter, (global mean surface temperature response Ts to the radiative forcing RF) is defined as:

Ts / RF =

Temperature change, Ts = * RF

= 0.54 oC/(W/m2) * 4.2 (W/m2)

= 2.268 oC

2. The relationship between carbon dioxide and radiative forcing is'

RF = 5.35 ln C/C0

where C is the CO2 concentration in parts per million by volume and C0 is the reference concentration

Ts = * RF

or,1oC = 0.54 oC/(W/m2) * RF

or, RF = 1.85 (W/m2)

1.85 = 5.35*lnC/398

or, C = 562.6 ppm