Prospect Name: Area (km): 100 (p90) – 140 (p50) – 200 (p10) Thickness (m): 40 –
ID: 803752 • Letter: P
Question
Prospect Name:
Area (km): 100 (p90) – 140 (p50) – 200 (p10)
Thickness (m): 40 – 60 – 100
Net to Gross (%): 40 – 50 – 70
Porosity (%): 8 – 12 – 16
Oil Saturation: 83 – 89 – 92
Recovery Factor: 15 – 30 – 45
Oil Formation Volume Factor: 1.50 rb/STB
What do you need to do?
Use Excel (only excel is allowed) to run a probabilistic calculation of the reserves.
Each excel worksheet has to be original so make sure you do not share with your peers.
Make sure the simulation contains 5000 iterations.
The excel document has to have a final result with a histogram distribution showing your reserves calculation.
Write a page explaining:
Why probabilistic is better than deterministic methods?
How the results can be used to assess the risks of drilling a new propect?
What are the parameters that need to be modeled and why is there uncertainties in these parameters?
Which variable affect the results the most? Least?
How will probabilistic calculations change before drilling the first well, after the first exploratory well is drilled, and through appraisal drilling?
Explanation / Answer
In probabilistic calculation chances of outcomes are involved whereas deterministic models uncertainty is not involved and we get certain outcomes under fixed or known inputs. We get a single answer in the deterministic method. In calculation various uncertainties due to various factors like type of reservoir, energy source for reservoirs, available technology, knowledge and experience of the evaluator etc, quantity and quality of geophysical and geological data.
The results obtained by either probabilistic or deterministic methods can be used determine the risk of drilling a new prospect. Since by knowing the ore calculation only we can know whether its drilling the prospect will be profitable or not. If the prospect is not profitable we wont drill that.
The parameters that need to modelled are ore grade, tonnage, dimensions of the ore body, cost involved, technology that need to be used, ore reserve calculation. There are various uncertainties due to various factors like type of reservoir, technology available, energy source of reservoir, quantity and quality of geological and geophysical data, assumptions made during estimation, knowledge and experience of the person.
The variable which affects the results the most is the quantity and quality of the data available because on the basis of data we will estimate the ore. The variable which affects least is the knowledge and experience of the person.
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