Predication and Possible Future Worlds Now that we have learned something of the

Question

Predication and Possible Future Worlds

Now that we have learned something of the science behind global warming, it is time to think about the limits of prediction. We know the world is heating up, that carbon, methane, and other greenhouse gases released by humans are the cause. But we do not know for sure the exact effects – some places hotter, some maybe colder; some wetter, some dryer. We have some basic ideas about it: in the short term at least dry areas get dryer, we areas probably get wetter (bad news for Austin – the kind of hot dry weather we have been experiencing during this drought cycle will probably become the norm around here, with its resulting damage to our water, our crops, and our health). The longer term (which is actually getting a lot closer – “long term” means by 2050 or so, and you are still going to be alive then, trying to figure out how to survive an maybe retire in the changed conditions) is less clear, but possibly much more scary.

Answer the prompts in short paragraphs like you did in previous assignments, and then spend some time thinking about and answering the application questions.

Model Worlds: What is the main problem in trying to model climate change? How do the examples of aerosols and global dimming illustrate our conundrum? Why does the author say that the only solution we have as of now is to start removing massive amounts of carbon and other greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere?

The Commitment and Approaching Extreme Danger: Using the information from Model Worlds and this chapter, explain what the author means when he says, on 169, that “its too late to avoid changing our world, but we still have time, if good policy is implemented, to avoid disaster”.

Leveling the Mountains: How Can They Keep on Moving, and Boiling the Abyss are all about the ways animal and plant species are being affected by global warming right now, and how the problems will increase as we get hotter. But if you read them with the right questions in mind, they say a lot about the problems humans will face too. Discuss how the changes we see going on now will not only make things very difficult for animals and plants, but for humans as well.

The Pack of Jokers: This chapter is probably the most important when we are talking about prediction, because we are pretty sure we know what will happen when these “tipping” points are reached, but now sure exactly how soon they will be reached. So, read through this chapter first, then discuss what we mean by “tipping” points. Very briefly, how would each of these “jokers” tip things into a really really bad state of affairs for humans?

Civilization: Out With a Whimper? is the most interesting forecast in the book, albeit, as the author acknowledges, informed speculation. But he does raise some harrowing ideas here. What is the main argument in this chapter, and what evidence does the author cite to suggest this end?

Application/Research 1: given what you have read in this assignment, what do you think are the main problems facing humans as we change our own world climate? Are some of these problems already causing changes in the country you are researching? If not, which ones will be the worst for that country?

Application 2: What do you think about the end of civilization argument? Scary? Possible? Improbable? Well, lets pretend it did happen – what would be the likely affect on humanity if it does?

Application 3: Say we refuse to change our own climate changing behaviors, that the worst happens, and the tipping points are are reached. Human civilization collapses. What then? Discuss whether this would be a good or bad or neutral thing in the larger picture of Gaia

Explanation / Answer

Model worlds: Climate models are just the mathematical calculations or representation of the interaction between atmosphere, oceans, sun, land and ice which is a complicated task. So these models just give the trend of the climate change not the events. These climate trends are the weather which is averaged over a period of time usually 30 years. These models predict future trend of climate change based on the past Since these models cannot simulate the past climate so it becomes difficult to correctly predict the future climate based on that

Our climate is not just changing because of global warming aerosols and the global dimming are also changing the climate. Global dimming phenomenon is that in which the sunlight reaching the earth's surface is decreased. This may be caused by the aerosols or the by products of fossil fuels which absorbs solar radiation and the reflect it back to the space. This has resulted in reduction of sunlight in Antarctica, USA, parts of Europe and Asia.

Since the industrial revolution the level of CO2 and other greenhouse gases like methane has increased considerably due to the burning of fossil fuels, urbanisation, deforestation on a large scale which has increased global warming considerably and will continue to increase at an alarming rate. So only solution left is start removing CO2 and other green house gases from the atmosphere.

Commitment and approaching extreme danger:Global warming has become so extreme because our earth system has been in vicious circle of positive feedback. If extra heat from any source whether from greenhouse gases, melting of ice, disappearance of forests their effect will be amplifed. Global warming is like a fire which has ignited and accelerating and there is no time left to act. Still if these greenhouse gases stopped immediately then our earth can reach the stable equilibrium position around 2050. Since we lack the techniques to remove the CO2 from the atmosphere because of long life of CO2 into the atmosphere. So though we are too late but still we have time if good policies are implemented to avoid this disaster.

Levelling the mountains: Due to the global warming the mountain dwelling species are shifting their homes up the slopes of the mountains by 6.1 m per decade. Without continued global warming rainfall variability will increase, droughts will be more pronounced, sea level will rise. The cloud which is now providing 40% of the water to the forests will rise and expose the forests to the more sunlight. With just 1 degree rise in temperature results in extinction of tropical species like Thornton Peak nursery frog. With 3.5 degree rise in temperature about 65 % of the animals species and also some plants species will vanish.

Application 1:The problems faced by humans due to climate change is global warming, rainfall variability, droughts, extinction of species. Due to the global warming sea ice and polar ice are melting which rises the sea level. The other effects of of climate change like rainfall variability and droughts are increasing because of imbalance in the CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Some species have extinct while others are on the verge of extinction. These problems are already faced by the country I am researching. The glaciers are melting and droughts are increasing here due to irregular pattern of rainfall and the temperature has been increased as compared to the last decade

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