R 0 = S L Where S is the number of susceptible individuals in the population, is
ID: 60727 • Letter: R
Question
R0 = S L
Where S is the number of susceptible individuals in the population, is rate of pathogen transmission, and L is the time an individual is infected.
Brucellosis is a disease that infects ungulates including North American Bison, Elk and cattle. In the Greater Yellowstone Area, this has been a concern because of the potential for transmission of Brucellosis from Bison to cattle. For this assignment, the current population of Bison in Yellowstone National Park is set at 4300 individuals, but the carrying capacity is 6200. The Bison population currently has 40% of the individuals infected with Brucella (genus of bacteria which causes Brucellosis). Among the total number of uninfected individuals, 30% have recovered and developed immunity to the disease according to the park records.
What is the number of susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R) individuals in the current population?
S =
I=
R=
What is the R0 value based on a rate of transmission for Brucella of 0.002 in the Bison population, and the length of infection is 2 years?Show calculation. Is Brucellosis likely to be sustained in the population given the current R0 value? Explain.
Explanation / Answer
Total population is 4300.
40% are infected which gives 1720. uninfected individuals are 4300 -1720 = 2580.
30% of 2580 gives 774.
Number of susceptible individuals would be 2580-774 = 1806
Number of infected individuals would be 1720.
Number of recovered individuals would be 774.
R0 = S L
= 1806 x 0.002 x 2
= 7.2
Since the value is greater than 1, the infection will spread and be sustained in the population
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