Problem 3-10 After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager h

Question

Problem 3-10 After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 30 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +10 units.

10

Use =.5 and =.1, and TAF of 250 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)

    

Period Actual Period Actual 1 205 6 261 2 226 7 275 3 221 8 275 4 235 9 286 5 259

10

Use =.5 and =.1, and TAF of 250 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)

    

t Period      TAFt 6    7    8    9    10

Explanation / Answer

Model Development t(Period) At(Actual) 1 205 2 226 3 221 4 235 Trend Estimate = (235 - 205) /3 = 10 Starting Forecast = 250 + 10 = 260 Model Test t(Period) At(Actual) Ft TAFt alpha*(At - TAFt) St Tt-1 Beta * (TAFt - TAF t-1 - Tt-1) Tt a b =e+h c d = 0.5*(c-a) e = c+d f g (beta = 0.1) h = f+g 5 259 250.00 4.50 254.50 10.00 0.00 10.00 6 261 264.50 264.50 -1.75 262.75 10.00 0.45 10.45 7 275 273.20 273.20 0.90 274.10 10.45 -0.13 10.32 8 275 284.42 284.42 -4.71 279.71 10.32 0.08 10.40 9 286 290.11 290.11 -2.05 288.05 10.40 -0.46 9.93 10 297.99

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