Gunn’s Tannery supplies leather to the South Fork Boot Company on a monthly basi
ID: 455172 • Letter: G
Question
Gunn’s Tannery supplies leather to the South Fork Boot Company on a monthly basis for manufacturing western style cowboy boots. The demand for cowboy boots is lowest in the late winter, increases during the summer and fall and reaches its peak during the Christmas season. The demand for leather follows the same general pattern. Gunn’s Tannery has experienced the following monthly demand for the past fourteen months.
Month
Demand
(1,000 yd2)
Month
Demand
(1,000 yd2)
January
1.3
August
2.0
February
1.1
September
2.9
March
0.9
October
3.2
April
1.6
November
3.7
May
1.5
December
2.4
June
2.1
January
1.6
July
2.4
February
1.0
For the data provided, develop an adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast for the first half of the year with = 0.40 and = 0.50. Assume an initial forecast for January of 1.3, a trend of 0.15 yards.
Month
Tt
Ft
FITt
January
0.15
1.3
1.45
February
March
April
May
June
Please show all calulations to get answers
Month
Demand
(1,000 yd2)
Month
Demand
(1,000 yd2)
January
1.3
August
2.0
February
1.1
September
2.9
March
0.9
October
3.2
April
1.6
November
3.7
May
1.5
December
2.4
June
2.1
January
1.6
July
2.4
February
1.0
Explanation / Answer
Ft =Ft-1 + (At-1 – Ft-1) Tt =(Ft – Ft-1) + (1- ) Tt-1 AFt = Ft + Tt 0.4 0.5 Month Dt Ft Tt AFt January 1.30 1.30 0.15 1.45 February 1.10 1.30 0.08 1.38 March 0.90 1.22 0.00 1.22 April 1.60 1.09 -0.07 1.03 May 1.50 1.30 0.07 1.36 June 2.10 1.38 0.08 1.45
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