Sales of industrial vacuum cleaners at Game Stores over the past 13 months are a
ID: 450944 • Letter: S
Question
Sales of industrial vacuum cleaners at Game Stores over the past 13 months are as follows:
Sales (P1,000s)
Month
11
January
14
February
16
March
10
April
15
May
17
June
11
July
14
August
17
September
12
October
14
November
16
December
11
January
Required:
1. Using a moving average with three periods, determine the demand for vacuum cleaners for next February.
2. Using a weighted moving average with three periods, determine the demand for vacuum cleaners for February. Use 3, 2, and 1 for the weights of the most recent, second most recent, and third most recent periods, respectively. For example, if you were forecasting the demand for February, November would have a weight of 1, December would have a weight of 2, and January would have a weight of 3.
3. Evaluate the accuracy of each of these methods.
4. What other factors might Game Stores consider in forecasting sales?
Ends.
Sales (P1,000s)
Month
11
January
14
February
16
March
10
April
15
May
17
June
11
July
14
August
17
September
12
October
14
November
16
December
11
January
Explanation / Answer
a)
MSE = (61.33) / 13 = 4.72
b)
MSE = 94.81 / 13 = 7.29
c)
lower is the MSE, the better is forecasting model.
d)
Factors might games stores consider in forecasting sales are :
1. state of economy.
2, Action of competitors
Month Sales Forecast (3 period) Error (Error)^2 Cumulative((Error)^2) Jan 11 Feb 14 Mar 16 Apr 10 13.67 -3.67 13.44 13.44 May 15 13.33 1.67 2.78 16.22 Jun 17 13.67 3.33 11.11 27.33 Jul 11 14.00 -3.00 9.00 36.33 Aug 14 14.33 -0.33 0.11 36.44 Sep 17 14.00 3.00 9.00 45.44 Oct 12 14.00 -2.00 4.00 49.44 Nov 14 14.33 -0.33 0.11 49.56 Dec 16 14.33 1.67 2.78 52.33 Jan 11 14.00 -3.00 9.00 61.33 Feb 13.67 -13.67Related Questions
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