Forecasts and actual sales of MP3 players at Just Say Music are as follows: Mont
ID: 419699 • Letter: F
Question
Forecasts and actual sales of MP3 players at Just Say Musicare as follows:
Month Forecast Actual Sales
March 150 170
April 220 229
May 205 192
June 256 241
July 250 238
August 260 210
September 270 225
October 280 179
a. Plot the data and show the plot using Excel, Word or PowerPoint.
b. Provide insights about the time series
c. What is the forecast for November, using a two-period moving average?
Note also that the forecast values provided are irrelevant to computing these moving average forecasts.
d. What is the forecast for November, using a three-period moving average?
e. Compute MSE for the two- and three-period moving average models and compare your results.
Note that we can only compute these measures through October because we need to know the actual sales.
PLEASE BE VERY DETAILED WHEN EXPLAINING AND SHOW ALL STEPS!! THANK YOU SO MUCH!!
I got answers A-D but I have no idea how to get the answers for Part E. I do not know to do it! Can someone please explain this to me in detail, and walk me through the whole process thanks!
a)
b) Looking at the time series, we obseve that the actual sales is less than the forecasted sales a majority of the times.
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Forecast for november using a two-period moving average = 202
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Forecast for November, using a three-period moving average = 204.67
3001 250 200 150 100 Forecast Actual sales 50Explanation / Answer
E)
MONTH
FORECAST(F)
ACTUAL SALES(S)
SQARE OF DEFFERENCE ( Fi – Si )^2
MARCH
150
170
400
APRIL
220
229
81
MAY
205
192
169
JUNE
256
241
225
JULY
250
238
144
AUGUST
260
210
2500
SEPTEMBER
270
225
2025
OCTOBER
280
179
10201
AVERAGE OF SQUARE OF DEFERENCE = 1968.125
MEAN SQUARE ERROR = (? ( Fi – Si )^2) / N
WHERE F = FORECASTED VALUE
S = ACTUAL SALES
N = NUMBER OF PERIODS
THEREFORE MSE = 1968.125
MONTH
FORECAST(F)
ACTUAL SALES(S)
SQARE OF DEFFERENCE ( Fi – Si )^2
MARCH
150
170
400
APRIL
220
229
81
MAY
205
192
169
JUNE
256
241
225
JULY
250
238
144
AUGUST
260
210
2500
SEPTEMBER
270
225
2025
OCTOBER
280
179
10201
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