A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequential

Question

A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows:

Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project.

Use the random numbers 0.1637, 0.5967, 0.6928 and 0.8154 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks.

Activity Activity Time
(weeks)
Probability A 4 0.33 5 0.35 6 0.25 7 0.07 B 8 0.18 10 0.56 12 0.26 C 7 0.06 9 0.27 11 0.42 13 0.20 15 0.05 D 9 0.55 11 0.45

Explanation / Answer

Base case = Most likely possible time = 5+10+11+9 = 35 weeks

Worst Case = Most time consuming scenario = 7+12+15+11 = 45 weeks

Best case = 4+8+7+9 = 28 weeks

Activity Random Number Completion Time A 0.1637 6 weeks B 0.5967 10 weeks C 0.6928 12 weeks D 0.8154 9 weeks Total 37 weeks

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