Here is one structured methodology for scenario planning, for your own organizat
ID: 416431 • Letter: H
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Here is one structured methodology for scenario planning, for your own organization or for one with which you are familiar: EXERCISE 4.2 Scenario Planning 1. "Brainstorm" the range of environmental factors that have the potential to impact on the performance of your organization. In the spirit of brainstorming, accept all sugges- tions at this point, and suspend judgement as to the significance of any suggested factor. 2. Ask individuals to identify which factors from this list they believe to be the "key d ers" of the organization's performance over a specified time period-say, five years 3. Aggregating these individual responses, identify the five most commonly cited key driv- ers; these could be, for example, exchange rates, new technologies, entry by new corm titors, mergers, competition for key staff, costs and/or shortages of raw materials 4. Using these key drivers as the core elements, construct three future scenarios for the organization: the most likely, an optimistic scenario, and a pessimistic one. The "most likely" scenario is constructed on the basis of the "best guess" as to what will happen to each of the five key drivers over the specified time frame. Note that "best guess" does not imply a casual approach; best guess can be based on sophisticated market intelligence and forecasting. The "optimistic" and "pessimistic" scenarios focus atten- tion on how the organization might respond to each of those outcomes. The con- struction of the scenarios requires skill, and it is not uncommon for organizations to employ external consultants who are experienced in scenario development. Scenarios need to be compelling and plausible narratives, even if they are unlikely to happen. This is necessary if they are to form the basis of discussion concerning the organiza- tion's response to those three possible futures. S. Finally, outline the different organizational change agendas that will be required to deal with each of those three possible futures.Explanation / Answer
Environmental factors affecting the performance of the organization
1. Cost of manufacturing
2.Technological changes
3. Exchange Rate
4. Political Changes
5. Change in tastes and preferences of the consumer
6. Global changes
7. Changes in the economic factors
8. Changes in the laws and regulations of the government
Key drivers impact on the foods and beverages manufacturing firm
For a foods and beverages manufacturing firm the below mentioned are the key drivers:
1. Changes in the tastes and preferences of the consumers : As the consumers are becoming more health conscious day by day, so there would be more demand of nutritious and healthy food items and decline in the demand of junk food items. Consumers are more inclined towards herbal drinks which are chemical free.
2. Changes in the laws and regulations pertaining to food items: Food and beverages Industry is governed by more stringent norms and regulations and thus all the food manufacturing firms are advised to abide by the norms.There is no scope of adulterated food items and certain chemicals in the food which causes health hazards are completely banned.
3. Technological changes : Technology used in food processing industry is constantly changing and thus firms need to upgrade themselves with the latest technology otherwise they are not able to geenrate profits.
4. Cost of manufacturing : Firms need to achieve economies of scale in production and manage to bring down the cost of production otherwise the firms would be at loss.
5.Global changes : Firms need to keep themselves updated with the globalchanges in terms of liking and preferences of the individual and thus have to come up with the innovative food items in terms of packaging or taste and quality of the food.
In future, there would be high demand of chemicalfree, nutritious and herbal food items which donot cause any health hazards.The food items should be processed and prepared with the least amount of trans fat and thus is good for the health. It should meet the global standards so that the food item will have international market and demand.
In order to meet these standards, there should be stringent Quality Implementation program in the company which will meet the International Quality standards. Labors should be imparted training in order to achieve those quality standards. They should be given exposure to the best practices used across the industry. There should also be a survey conducted in order to find out the tastes,preferences and expectations of the customers.
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