Read these Five Famously Wrong Predictions About Technology http://theinstitute.

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Read these Five Famously Wrong Predictions About Technology

http://theinstitute.ieee.org/ieee-roundup/members/achievements/five-famously-wrong-predictions-about-technology

* Why were these incredibly smart people so wrong?

1. Make a list of the technologies in the predictions

2. State where you think they were on the hype cycle at the time of the prediction. Be sure to justify your answer- why are you classifying them this way.

3. Were the predictors (the people making the predictions) working in large, established companies? Again, be sure to justify your answer.

4. Do you see any trends here?

5. Do you have a famously wrong prediction - why were you so wrong?

Explanation / Answer

Q1) The technologies in the wrong predictions include -

1. Personal computers

2. Tablets

3. iPhone

4. Cellular phones

5. Internet

Q2) Below is where the technologies stand on the hype cycle at the time of prediction -

1. Personal computers - Innovation Trigger

It was a time when small business computers are slowly being used by companies but personal computer is still in the innovation stage.

2. Tablets - Plateau of Productivity

Tablets are already adopted and have consistent sales. The individuals who are already using tablets are holding them for long. Hence, the tablets are already in the plateau of productivity phase.

3. iPhone - Innovation Trigger

iPhone is developed first in 2007 as an innovative product and introduced in the market.

4. Cellular phones - Innovation Trigger

It was a time when cellular phones are being developed and introduced to the market. The cost is difficult to afford and hence, cell phone was expected to not replace landline phones.

5. Internet - Peak of Inflated Expectations

Internet was invented and soon was hyped as the next big thing with a peak of inflated expectations in around 1995-96.

Q3) All the predictors were working in large and established companies when they gave the statement.

Ken Olsen was the President of digital equipment when he made statement on PCs in 1977

Thorsten Heins was Blackberry CEO when he made statement on Tablets in 2013

Steve Ballmer was Microsoft CEO when he made statement in 2007

Martin Cooper was Director of Research at Motorola when he made statement in 1981

Robert Metcalfe was one of the inventors of Ethernet when he made statement in 1995

Q4) The trends were that all the technologies except Tablet were in their initial stages of devleopment and release. They were very costly and were difficult to afford for a common man. Tablet was the product which already became stable selling product in the market when the statement was made.

Q5) I predicted that Blockchain technology will fail as it will be difficult to provide a secure way to control and manage the shared ledgers across the business partners. My prediction is being proven wrong as more companies started research on the implementation of the technology.

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