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Quiz: Quiz 3 This Question: 14 pts 9 of 15 (12 complete) Sales of Volkswagen\'s

ID: 397723 • Letter: Q

Question

Quiz: Quiz 3 This Question: 14 pts 9 of 15 (12 complete) Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). YearSales 455 495 520 575 580 2 a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method are sales (round your response to one decimal place). b) The MAD for a linear regression forecast is sales (round your response to one decimal place). o) The MSE for the linear regression forecast is sales (round your response to one decimal place). Enter your answer in each of the answer boxes.

Explanation / Answer

Let the linear regression equation is :

Y = a + b.X

Where,

Y ( dependent variable ) = Sales

X ( Independent variable ) = Year

A, b = constants

We now place all values of year as well as sales ( as provided ) in two adjacent columns in excel and apply the formula LINEST ( ) to obtain the values of a and b

Accordingly values of a and b are as follows :

A= 426

B = 33

Therefore, Linear regression equation is :

Y = 426 + 33.X

Hence forecasted sales for year 6 = 426 + 33 x 6 = 426 + 198 = 624

Refer below mentioned table. The forecasted sales for all periods ( 1 through 5 ) are filled up using the above linear regression equation .

Also to be noted :

Absolut deviation = Absolute difference between Forecasted sales and Actual sales

Squared error = ( Absolute deviation ) ^2

Mean absolute Deviation ( MAD ) = Sum of absolute deviation / 5 ( i.e. number of observations)

Mean Squared Error ( MSE ) = Sum of squared error / 5 ( i.e. number of observations)

Year

Sales

Forecast

Absolute deviation

Square error

1

455

459

4

16

2

495

492

3

9

3

520

525

5

25

4

575

558

17

289

5

580

591

11

121

SUM =

40

460

Thus,

Mean Absolute deviation ( MAD ) = 40/5 = 8

Mean squared error ( MSE ) = 460 / 5 = 92

  1. FORECASTED SALES FOR YEAR 6 = 624