Given the actual data below: Part a) Calculate the Last Period forcasts Part B)

Question

Given the actual data below: Part a) Calculate the Last Period forcasts Part B) Calculate the moving average forcast using n=4 Part C) Calculate the weighted moving average forecast, n 4, weights .4,.3,.2,.1 Part D) Calculate the exponential smooting forecast, with alpha-,4, and a starting forecast the same as the first period actual (324) Part E) For each matching pair of actual and forecasts (for each forecasting method), calculate the absolute forecast error (In Excel ABS) is the formula for absolute value) Part F) Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for each forecasting method Part G) Calculate the average actual demand for all period. Use that to calculate the mean % error, based on the MAD above Part H) Calculate the squared error for each matching pair of actual and forecasts (for each forecasting method) Part I) Calculate the Mean Squared Error (MSE) for each forecastaing method Part J) Identify which is the best forecasting method by comparing the mean absolute deviation values Actual Period Demand 904 910 905 899 909 912 902 915 908 912 900 899 918 920 10 12 13 14 15

Explanation / Answer

1. According to last period forecast the forecast will be 920.

2. Forecast using mocking average

= (900+899+918+920)/4 = 909.25

3. Forecast using weighted average

= 900(0.4) + 899(0.3) + 918(0.2) + 920(0.1) = 360 + 269.7 + 183.6 + 92 = 905.3

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